Behold my post-lottery big board for the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft. A few things of note before I begin:
A lot of people have different approaches to a big board. My approach is to select the players that I think, given equal development opportunities, will have the most success in the NBA. I also consider their ceilings and floors in my evaluations. Just because I put Tidjane Salaun in the 13th spot does not mean I think he is the 13th best player immediately, or even that I am betting on him to be the 13th best player. It is simply stating that I would be willing to invest in his potential at the 13th pick over others. Likewise, if I pick Dalton Knecht at 31, that does not mean I think he won’t amount to anything in the NBA. It just means that I think there are 30 other players that are more worth attempting to develop. Because of this strategy, my board is likely to veer from the consensus, which is part of the fun of making these things. I also take a very statistically based approach, meaning I don’t put much weight on things like “the eye test”. If you are a big “eye test” advocate, I suggest you read with an open mind. However, if you would prefer analysis that is more “eye test” based, you might find a better analysis elsewhere. With that all addressed, I present you my top 60 NBA prospects of the 2014 draft class!
Nikola Topic
A really lazy analysis of this upcoming draft is that it is devoid of top-level stardom. The reality is this may just be people parroting the same talking points they had about this very same draft-class two years ago. People talk about this draft as if failure is inevitable. However, if anyone is going to shut these pundits up, it is Nikola Topic. Topic has true star potential. Why? He has potential to become one of the best offensive
players in the NBA, being elite in multiple areas on offense.
The most obvious area is in his ability to score inside. He cuts through defenses like butter. We may not have seen a player with his ability in this regard since SGA.
Second, he is an elite passer. Many people fall victim of the volume of guards like Cade Cunningham and Scoot Henderson. Sure, these guys can rack up assists, however, that comes with the territory of being a ball dominant point guard. Topic takes passing to another level, as he adds on a layer of efficiency. Topic boasts an impressive 2.4 AST/TO ratio, making him one of the best decision makers in this draft, which is especially impressive given the volume at which he dishes out assists (7.2 AST/GM per 36 minutes). He could easily become the among the best passers in the game, joining the ranks of Luka Doncic and Tyrese Haliburton.
Finally, while many attack his shooting ability, the reality is, he boasts potential here as well. It is easy to point to Topic’s abysmal 31% three-point percentage. However, there is more than meets the eye here. His free throw percentage is one of the best in this draft class, despite also being one of the few 18-year-olds. He shoots at 88% from the line, which is not just promising. It’s elite. A good free throw often indicates shooting upside. As such, we can expect Topic’s shooting to improve—and it has. Topic has steadily increased his 3P% over the course of the season in Europe. His shooting slump may be a facade that distracts from otherwise solid shooting.
Put Topic’s ability to attack the basket at will, pass the ball with high volume and efficiency, and shoot free throws at an elite level, and you have an almost ideal offensive prospect.
Now, for the defense…Yeah. It’s not great. It’s especially disappointing given his size. That said, his defensive rating, while bad (107.3), is not as atrocious as other guard prospects of the past. But I still wouldn’t say he has much defensive upside, despite the size. As such, I would not expect much in that department. Then again, most guards are not good defenders. As long as Topic goes to a system that complements him well, perhaps with some good defenders on the wings, Topic’s offense should make up for his deficiencies on defense. After all, nobody would say Luka Doncic is a liability, despite his sub-par defense (I am not saying Topic is Luka, let’s make that clear). The reality is that every prospect in this draft has weak points. However, it is Topic’s upside on the offensive end that makes him the number one option for me in this draft.
Reed Sheppard
I love, love, love Reed Sheppard. I will defend him with my life. There are so many Sheppard haters, but there is no denying his efficiency. He is perhaps the most efficient freshman prospect we have seen in years. If he was just two inches taller, I bet pundits would start calling him a “generational” prospect. But that is just the problem. He lacks size.
At 6’3” (if we are being generous), Sheppard would be undersized as a two-guard. That is not to say he is unworkable there. Plenty of small two-guards have feasted in the NBA: Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickly, Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons, CJ McCollum, etc. Need I say more?
Where people get really concerned about Sheppard’s size is on the defensive end. Looking at the above list of shooting guards, none of these guys are considered great on the defensive end. In fact, most are considered defensive liabilities. That said, none of these guys boasted the defensive numbers that Sheppard has entering into the league. Sheppard is one of the top prospects in this draft in terms of stocks, at an impressive 4.0 a game, which is even more impressive considering he is a small guard. And his stocks are not just empty stats either. Sheppard has an elite defensive box plus minus, at 5.0, showing the advanced metrics like his defense as well. What Sheppard lacks in physical tools, he makes up with IQ and hustle. Skill matters, and Sheppard has oodles of that, which makes me believe that, even if his defense doesn’t completely translate over to the NBA, a solid amount of it will. Let me put it this way: I don’t think he will be a liability on defense. As such, people need to stop thinking about what his defense will look like in the NBA and start focusing on how crazy good his offense could be.
Sheppard is among the best shooters in this draft class. In a recent “Locked on Jazz” podcast, David Locke uncovered how impressive Reed Sheppard’s shooting is: 100 percentile in spot-up shooting, 99 percentile in catch-and-shoot, 98 percentile in catch-and-shoot unguarded, 99 percentile in off-the-dribble shooting. That’s god-sent. And it is not like he was doing this on small volume either. Sheppard shot 52% from three (Wow) with a 0.55 3PA Rate (Wow). That’s ridiculous efficiency AND volume. The free throw, which I always look at, checks out too, at 83%. I don’t put this lightly—if I were to bet on any draft prospect, in any draft, to become the GOAT of shooting after Steph, it would be Reed Sheppard. Ok. So, I still wouldn’t make this bet, but if I had to, Sheppard would be the guy. Even if Reed Sheppard becomes Trae Young on defense, those shooting stats should be enough to make him a lottery pick in any draft.Finally, a word on his ability to play point guard. A lot believe that Reed Sheppard has to become a point guard if he is to become a good player in the NBA. Others will suggest that this is not possible, as Sheppard spent all of last season at Kentucky playing shooting guard. Both arguments are not grounded in reality. As illustrated above, Sheppard can play shooting guard and be just fine. I get that the NBA is getting bigger on some levels, but talent and skill still triumph over size. Likewise, Sheppard can play point guard. In fact, he may be as good of a point guard as anyone in this class, including media darlings like Rob Dillingham and Stephon Castle. Reed Sheppard certainly has the passing chops to be a point guard, as he almost matched his Kentucky point guard counterpart in Rob Dillingham in terms of AST/36 (5.6 to 6.0 respectively) as a shooting guard. Additionally, Sheppard passes with greater efficiency, with a 2.24 AST/TO rate versus Dillingham’s 1.94 AST/TO. By the way, this is not a slight on Dillingham, who I like as well. This just speaks to Sheppard’s ability and versatility.
Reed Sheppard is the safest non-center pick in this draft, and for good reason. However, let’s not downplay his upside either. He could become one of the best shooters in the game, while also having impressive defensive and passing ability.
Donovan Clingan
Notice how I said Reed Sheppard is the safest non-center pick in this draft. Well, here is the safest pick in this draft. Clingan roared his way through the NCAA Tournament. As a result, his stock has risen dramatically in recent weeks. That said, that is not the reason I am high on Clingan. I try to avoid getting caught up in the hype of the moment, and instead try to make a holistic assessment of a player’s ability.
Even if you didn’t look at Clingan’s impressive NCAA Tournament performance, he is still a great prospect. Clingan’s efficiency is maybe only rivaled by Zach Edey and teammate Cam Spencer in this draft class. However, what makes Clingan a better prospect are several factors:
First, Clingan is still relatively young. Age is not super important when considering centers, but it is still worth thinking about. Second, Clingan’s defensive chops boast elite drop-big potential. Blocks translate into the NBA, and Clingan’s got plenty of them, at 3.9 a game. Third, Clingan has an intriguingly good passing game, which fits into the trend of bigs shouldering more of the playmaking responsibility for NBA teams. This adds together to him being a really solid big prospect. At worse, he is Nic Claxton, a solid passing big with good defense. At best, he could be Rudy Gobert (I personally think that comparison is on the optimistic side). Regardless, you are getting a good NBA player who can have a winning impact instantly.
Clingan’s upside is somewhat limited because he can’t shoot the ball. That said, the small ball era is more or less over, and the drop big is in ascendance. This may mean Clingan could become easily replaceable in the future, but on the other end, Clingan is above average, even for recent drop-bigs that project well into the NBA. I think a team would not regret taking Clingan at the three spot. That is, unless there is a stud that follows him.
Rob Dillingham
Rob Dillingham may be that stud. Or he could just be a nice microwave scorer off the bench. Either could easily happen, that said, Rob Dillingham’s upside is encouraging enough for me to want to take him at 4.
Rob Dillingham has a lot of similarities to his teammate, Reed Sheppard. He can shoot pretty well. He’s not elite, but he is above average. He also can pass the ball pretty well. Once again, not elite, but he is above average. But do you know who else looked pretty “just-above-average” in a similar role and position in college? SGA.
I doubt Dillingham develops into a player of SGA’s caliber. That said, young guards who are even average efficiency in college tend to pan out in the pros. The reason for this is because most young guards are horrendously inefficient. Thus, when you see a young guard prospect demonstrating whelming stats, then that is actually a good sign. It is an even better sign when that guard shoots above 80% from the charity stripe. Dillingham is just under this number, but good enough at 79.6% that I will give him the pass. Young guards under 21 years and shooting over 80% on average to above average efficiency pan out at a shockingly high rate, something that I intend to write about in another article. Rob Dillingham pretty much fits that bill. As such, I have reason to be optimistic on Dillingham. I certainly don’t think he will bust. The bigger question is whether or not he is an elite sixth man or a star.
So why not take Dillingham over Clingan? It’s the defense. There is a good chance he becomes one of the worst defenders in the league, and defense is half of the game. Whatever good Dillingham does on offense could just as easily be cancelled out by what he does, or fails to do, on the defensive end. As such, I have some hesitancy in taking a player like him. I have seen too many times in which Trae Young or Donovan Mitchell have lost their teams games because of bad defense, despite impressive offensive performances. Thus, while I am still high on Dillingham, he comes with some risk.
Alexandre Sarr
Now to the prospect to which I feel the most indifference in this draft class! Alex Sarr has a really good shot at going number one in this class. For whatever reason, a few months back, Sarr started showing up number one on a lot of big boards, and he has sort of just stayed there. He has been pretty consistent, so I will give him that much.
I don’t love Sarr, but I don’t hate him either. He’s just not a super sexy or exciting pick for me. To me, he screams of a prospect like Evan Mobley or DeAndre Ayton (though Mobley is the more apt comparison): A perfectly solid NBA starter who has potential to be all-star caliber, but you just aren’t quite sure if he will ever get there.
Sarr is a really safe pick. I was once sounding the alarm about Sarr, because his free throw was really underwhelming and his defensive rating was atrocious. As a result, I was saying to myself “What can he do that actually makes him worth a top pick?”. However, his free throw has improved, which says that he may become a passable stretch big. I don’t think he is going to become Karl-Anthony Towns, if that is what you are asking for. That said, he may be able to stretch the floor well enough that you can turn to him to take such a shot without pulling the hair out of your head or seeing the highlight (or lowlight) go viral on Reddit NBA.
As well, while his defensive rating is still ridiculously bad, I have learned not to put too much weight behind the metric when evaluating prospects coming from pro leagues. The reality is that most of such prospects have a bad defensive rating. Even Wemby, our future defensive overlord, had an underwhelming defensive rating in Europe.
What is likely to translate over into the NBA is his blocking ability. He’s not Clingan-good in this regard, but he is a good shot-blocker, with just over 3 a game. His size makes this number even more encouraging, standing at 7'1”. These facts together tend to point to a perfectly passable NBA player that could certainly contribute to winning basketball. He has probably a top 3 floor in this class, which is a pretty good place to be at.
Zach Edey
That’s right. I am in the “Zach Edey can work in the NBA” camp. I think how people are evaluating Zach Edey is a perfect case of “missing the forest for the tree”. It is typical for draft analysts to get bogged down into one flaw a player has and then declare doom.
In this case, Edey’s problem is his mobility. A lot will assert that Edey can’t translate his game into the NBA because the NBA requires more speed, spacing, and mobility. This is certainly a concern, but it is not as damning for Edey as people think it is.
Having a mobile big simply is not that important. Rudy Gobert, who just won his record-tying fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, ranks 9th in the NBA in the least amount of distance traveled defensively. Other players who are often considered “immobile” include Ivaca Zubac, Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson, Jusuf Nurkic, Steven Adams, Jakob Poeltl, etc. That said, they have all carved out respectable NBA careers. Yes, immobility will limit your potential, however, it won’t destroy it all together.Also worth noting is that Edey is not as immobile as you think he is. If you want proof, look at some of his combine performances, where he has outperformed or come close to performing on the same level as prospects like Clingan and Sarr in mobility related drills. I’m not saying he is a gazelle, but it’s not like he is Jabba the Hut.
Also, Zach Edey is one of the most productive and efficient college players we have ever seen. His size is unmatched. In a league where Victor Wembanyama is about to outsize just about everyone, it may be wise to test out a 7’5” player. On top of this, Edey’s efficiency is not just tied to him being an older and experienced college player. He’s been this way his whole career. Some of that has to translate to the NBA.
I don’t think you are getting a star in Edey, but I think, at worst, you are getting a solid back up big that you can use to take advantage of a size mismatch. Not to mention, it’s not like he is completely like the bigs of old, immobile and unable to shoot. He actually has a very passable FT%, which means he won’t be a major liability in that regard, which is really promising for playoff basketball. I would not be shocked if some of that translates to actual shooting in the league.
Zach Edey is not Tacko Fall. He’s probably closer to a taller Jonas Valanciunas (a highly underrated player). That’s a good value in a draft where you have generally low upside or have to take a wild swing to get it.
Johnny Furphy
At this point, you have probably noticed that I am really “stretching” with picks 6-11. The consensus would probably wince at this big board, seeing me take Johnny Furphy or Zach Edey above Zaccharie Risacher (gasp). But that same consensus will often make statements like “This draft is so unpredictable. It could really go anyway.” So, you can either seek refuge in the unpredictability when your mock draft looks crappy a few years down the line, or you can make a genuine effort to try to find the best prospects available, take some risks, and buck the consensus. I prefer to do the latter.
Furphy could be a really good player, a really average player, or fade away into oblivion. I know. Bold take. He has really average statistics across the board which makes him hard to predict. That said, his shooting is not great, but it is good enough to lead one to believe he can be a solid shooting guard in this league. Additionally, his size is really promising at 6’9”. Finally, he has been one of the most efficient freshmen in college basketball, with only Reed Sheppard and Collin Murray-Boyles rivaling him. I’m a sucker for efficient college freshman who play for blue bloods. Furphy checks all of those boxes.
Here, is a guy who may fit the Keegan Murray mold. He is known as a three-and-D guy who is not particularly elite at 3s or D, but he is good enough to give himself the label. He could also be like his fellow countryman, Joe Ingles, with a solid shot, defense, and positional size. Neither is a bad NBA player, and both would probably be passable, if not good selections at this pick.
To me, Furphy is about as safe as anyone in this draft. I don’t expect him to be a star, but I don’t expect that of much of the remaining prospects in this draft—That is, unless you are willing to take some risks.
Tyler Smith
Here is risk option number one. Tyler Smith actually has some pretty good stats coming out of the G-League Ignite. Many may be shocked that I am taking him over some of his teammates, including Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis, but hear me out. Tyler Smith makes much more sense than either of those prospects if you ignore the hype that accompanied the latter two in their high school careers.
First, Tyler Smith may be number one in this draft in terms of positional size. Listed as a forward, Tyler Smith stands at 6’11. That’s a rarity, even in a league that is scrambling for positional size. I try not to get too invested in a prospect’s physical attributes, like how high a person’s vertical is, or how fast he can run up and down the floor. However, size can undoubtedly create an advantage. Tyler Smith fits the bill here.
Second, as alluded to earlier, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G-League prospect. On a team of low-efficiency nightmares, Tyler Smith has been a welcomed sign of relief. He’s not a spectacular shooter, but he is good enough where he won’t be horrendously inefficient on that end. As well, his stocks are pretty good, which point to defensive upside (though, like pretty much all G-League prospects, he has bad advanced metrics on defense). I really wonder if Tyler Smith played for a program other than the Ignite if his stock would be higher right now.
And that brings me to my greatest concern, and ultimately, why I think he’s a bit of a risk. He plays for the Ignite. Ugh. The Ignite actively destroys talent. When your shining star is Jalen Green or Jonathan Kuminga, despite consistently cranking out top 10 draft picks, then you know something is up. The 18-21 age range is super important in a player’s development, so being in a good system during these years is crucial. However, the Ignite is a bad system. It is basically a program where every player takes turns iso-ing and then playing no defense. It’s not a recipe for good basketball and makes the players stupid. It takes years for players to unlearn what they “learn” at the Ignite, as evidenced by only the recent progression of Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green (which, honestly, the verdict is still out on them for me). Simply put, be wary drafting Ignite players.
Jared McCain
Every draft, there is that one dude who is basically just there to be an elite shooter. Many may argue that that is Reed Sheppard this year, but Reed Sheppard is much more than an elite shooter. Instead, this year, that player is Jared McCain.
McCain is a phenomenal shooter, with a 41% three-point percentage and an 89% free throw, which is among the highest in the class. As such, he is a guaranteed sniper. A team looking to bolster its shooting, like Detroit or Orlando, could greatly benefit from Jared McCain.My one issue with Jared McCain is, what else does he do? I guess he rebounds pretty well and doesn’t turnover the ball too much, but neither of those are that important for the role he is likely to play.
The size is also a concern. Now, you may be saying, “Zach, you are contradicting yourself. You just defended Reed Sheppard’s size. Now you are attacking Jared McCain’s size!” Yes and no. The difference is that Reed Sheppard has strong defensive metrics, which leads me to believe the damage of a lack of size will not affect him as much. McCain was only average on defense in college, and as such, will not likely project well as a defender in the NBA. Additionally, McCain can’t play the point guard like Sheppard can. His assist numbers are terrible, with a very low AST/USG ratio at 0.52 and a poor AST/TO ratio at 1.45. I don’t want this guy playing point guard for me. As such, he is stuck at shooting guard, which means the size will be a bigger issue for him. With that all considered, the shooting is still elite and there is a place for him in this league.
Ulrich Chomche
Now for the first really big swing I will make in this draft. Ulrich Chomche is a big with potentially all the skills you would want in a big. He can shoot (maybe). He can block shots (maybe). He can hit free throws (maybe). He can even pass and steal the ball pretty well (maybe). Ok. One thing for sure is he has solid size at 6’11” with a 7’3” wingspan. But that won’t make him a good prospect in itself.
Ulrich Chomche, if you ignore the sample size of his stats, would make you consider putting him as the top pick in this draft. That’s how good his stats look. He has shot 38% from three and 75% from the line, which is really good for a center. But he isn’t just one of those lame stretch bigs who are just a two-guard trapped in a big’s body. He can also swat the ball, average 3.2 blocks per 36. He also passes the ball at a ridiculous 4.0 assists per 36. At first glance, it looks like we may have Jaren Jackson Jr. with passingn skills. However, the reality is he has only played a few games this season and it was for NBA Academy Africa. Definitely not usual place to find NBA talent, and who knows what the competition is like.So Chomche is risky. That said, if he pans out, a team is going to get themselves the steal of the draft. In a pretty lukewarm draft class, why not take a swing on Chomche?
DaRon Holmes
DaRon Holmes was, without a doubt, a great college player last season at Dayton. Very few players were as productive and efficient as he was, and he deserves some roses for that. But a lot of people are sleeping on him as a prospect, which is understandable.
First, Holmes went to Dayton. Going to a mid-major is always going to hurt your draft stock—and probably justifiably so. Mid-major college basketball is probably the lowest level of competition one will see from players entering the NBA. So, it is hard to evaluate whether the stats a mid-major player produces are legit at face value or not. But Holmes’s numbers pop off the page.
Take a look at DaRon Holmes’s Tankathon page and you’ll see why. Virtual perfection. He can score, rebound, pass, shoot, and defend. He is a catch of all trades. Another encouraging statistic is that he is a bit of a free throw merchant. I know, I know. “Constant free throws ruin the integrity of the game!”, but, like it or not, that is one of the most efficient ways to score in the NBA.
Another criticism Holmes may receive is that, because he is an older player, you should take his numbers with a grain of salt. I understand that argument completely. Older prospects simply do not project as well as younger players. However, the counterpoint to that is that Holmes has been quite efficient his whole career, including last year when he almost committed to the draft.
If I were to give Holmes one area of improvement, it would probably be his shooting. He has shot 38% from three this year, which is good. However, that may not be what we should expect all the time, as his free throw rests at only 71%, which is not great for a wing player. That said, it is passable for a power forward, and I don’t imagine it will make him a total liability in terms of shooting. I just don’t think he’ll ever be among the best in that domain, which is okay so long as he can contribute in other ways. And he can.
I’ll be honest. His upside is Siakam, which would make him one of the best players in this class. And if you compare Siakam and Holmes’ pre-draft statistics, you’ll see why. On that note, I wouldn’t put such expectations on Holmes. Siakam benefited from great development in Toronto. However, I can assure you Holmes is an NBA player.
Ron Holland
Ron Holland is a player I am really mixed on. He is a combination of really bad traits and some pretty good traits. His shooting this past year in the G-League has been pure garbage. However, his shot isn’t broken, as he maintains a passable free throw percentage. He has terrible defensive metrics. However, he has an elite steal rate. His offensive metrics aren’t good either. However, he scores at will. This is the type of player you are getting out of Holland. A sort of Jekyll and Hyde. I could very well see him being the type of player who can will you to victory one night and single handedly disintegrate your team’s chances on another night.
Holland has upside, so that is why he is worth taking in the lottery. There was a reason at one point he was arguably the consensus number one in this draft. That said, he really needs to work on certain parts of his game to be a consistent contributor to a winning team. G-League Ignite was the worst place he could go to develop. However, in the right system, Holland could shine.
Tidjane Salaun
Salaun is a guy I go back and forth on as well. If you can’t tell by now, I put a lot of weight on free throw percentage and, to a lesser extent, steal rate. For whatever reason, good performance in these stats tends to be indicative of good performance in the NBA. Salaun checks both of the boxes here. I think that is why many say he is the highest upside guy in this class: He is tall, he can shoot, and he can defend—if only it were that simple.
The reality is that Salaun has been anything but effective in Europe this season. His advanced metrics are piss poor and his shooting numbers haven’t been great either, despite the good free throw percentage. At some point, you have to take the stats in front of you and accept that a player might not have what it takes, even if there is potential. That is kind of where I am with Salaun. That said, there is always that 20% chance (arbitrary number) that he blossoms into something great. And that is why you take him in the lottery. I would not bet on Salaun, but I would probably not have bet on Giannis either.
Dillon Jones
Here is the perhaps the one player I irrationally like over other players. But I don’t think I am being too irrational. Dillon Jones is a baller. Much like DaRon Holmes, you have an almost statistically perfect prospect that happens to be on the older end and playing for a mid-major. As such, you have to exercise caution. However, I have found that players that excel in certain areas go on to become solid NBA role players, even if they are not necessarily stars.
Dillon Jones stands out in a few traits. First, he is a point-forward, which one does not stumble upon every day. At 6’6”, he effectively operated as a point guard for Weber State. If I drafted Jones, I would be tempted to place him at point guard and see what he can do, because he has the skill set of one, dishing out assists at high volume and efficiency.
On that same token, he also has effectively operated as a power forward, grabbing boards at a high rate. Boom. The perfect point forward. He is a bit short if he does play the forward position. I like my forwards at least 6’7”. That said, the rebounding suggests that he plays bigger than his size. As well, he has other ways he can contribute, even if size becomes an issue.
I also would not worry too much about the age. Jones has been consistently efficient his whole career, so there is reason to believe his gaudy numbers are not just the result of him being more mature than other players. I like Jones a lot, and I think teams would be wise to consider drafting him.
Ryan Dunn
Ryan Dunn somewhat gives me Jaden McDaniels vibes, in that he is probably going to go at the latter half of the 1st round, however, he may be considered more valuable after he has established himself as an elite defender in the league. Where a lot of people are low on him, and rightfully so, is on the offensive end.
I have some room for optimism that he won’t be a total liability on offense though. He actually boasts a pretty good field goal percentage, making a lot of two-pointers at high efficiency. So even if he is a wing that can’t shoot, he can still be of service on the offensive end of the floor to some degree.
However, the big risk with Dunn is the free throws. You simply can’t have a wing that shoots 50% from the line in the playoffs. That said, I’m still pretty high on a guy who is likely the best defender in this class—after all, defense is half of the game. And the offense is not as catastrophic as I think some people are making it out to be.
Tyler Kolek
This guy is the epitome of a pure point guard. Some suggest the pure point guard is dead. I couldn’t disagree more. Why do you think Minnesota has rocketed upwards with Mike Conley and the Suns have plummeted with no true point guard? Pure point guards play a crucial role and need to become trendy again.
Kolek could help out in that regard. He is probably the best passer in this draft. He checks out in volume and efficiency. He can also shoot pretty well.
Areas of concern are his size and his age. As I have alluded to time and time again, small guards are generally okay to a certain extent. The age is a bit more my cause for worry. At 23, he is pushing the boundaries of what I am comfortable with in a prospect, and I think his ceiling is limited as a result. However, what he can bring instantly is interesting, and I could see him playing a crucial role of being a general of a second unit somewhere. Who knows? Maybe I am being too low on him.
Kyshawn George
George is one of those guys who could easily finish top 10 in a future redraft if things pan out properly. That said, I am quite skeptical.
First, the pros: George has great positional size for a shooting guard at 6’8”, along with a good shot. He shot 41% from downtown, with a solid free throw to accompany it, at 78%. This makes me pretty confident that his shot will fall in the NBA. As well, his general productivity, looking exclusively at his box score, is impressive.
Here is where I start to get concerned. He is young, but not that young. He will be on the wrong side of 20 entering the draft, which is fine and still leaves a lot of room for potential. However, him being older than the average freshman may explain his generally good productivity and shooting efficiency as a younger prospect. Second, his advanced metrics are some of the worst in this draft.
Even if he has good box-score stats (with exception to scoring, which can be explained by a low-usage rate, due to playing a secondary role at Miami), having bad advanced metrics almost always spells trouble. This is especially the case for George, as he is among the lowest performers in this draft in terms of offensive box plus minus, PER, win shares, offensive win shares, and defensive rating.You may notice that George and Salaun are quite similar in this regard, so why do I have Salaun four spots ahead of George. A few reasons: Salaun is slightly bigger, plays in a more competitive league where young guys are almost always inefficient, and is almost two years younger, which makes a big difference. It is also worth noting that the players in the 13 to 17 range are all fairly interchangeable, so four spots, at this point, is not as big of a margin as it may suggest.
Kyle Filipowski
Kyle Filipowski is a weird prospect as a center. His biggest strength is his passing, which is a plus, but not necessarily what I expect out of a center. Typically, when I am looking for a center, I ask myself the following questions:
-Can he play defense/block shots?-Can he stretch the floor?
-How’s his touch?
-How mobile is he?
In the case of Filipowski, I am not sure he can play defense at a high level, as his block rate is not particularly impressive, though he does seem to have good hands at stripping the ball away. I am also not entirely sure if he can stretch the floor all that well. That’s always been Filipowski’s big selling point: Stretch big. That said, his shooting is a bit inconsistent, and he shoots only 67% from the stripe. That doesn’t scream stretch big to me. That more says, “He attempts to shoot threes” (insert shrug emoji). So, what else can he do? He scores pretty well, but that probably won’t be his role in the NBA, as only the most elite of big men are turned to for their scoring ability. Additionally, he is not spectacularly mobile, so I am not sure he provides that edge either.
With that all said, he seems like a perfectly average, inoffensive prospect. Yeah, he doesn’t have any strong skill sets, but he isn’t really horrendous at anything, which leads me to believe he will survive in the league. Maybe he is sort of like a Wendell Carter Jr., who is a passable shooter, passable defender, and good passer. I think that’s a good upside comparison for Filipowski.
Pacome Dadiet
I’m not a mega fan of Dadiet, but he is just effective enough where he lands on my radar as an interesting prospect. He’s among the youngest prospects in this draft class, has great positional size, and shoots very well in terms of two-point percentage. His free throw is so-so at 75%, so I’m not sure I bill him as a shooting guard. That said, he does seem to have a superpower for finishing, and at this point in the draft, looking for players with superpowers is a wise move, because you are almost definitely looking at role players. Dadiet has a fair amount of upside because of his young age. So, the fact he has managed to be as solid as he has been at this young age, in Europe, is promising.
Cody Williams
Alright. The next few picks are where the torches come out. And even after I knock off these guys from my board, there are still a few other guys you will be waiting for and calling me crazy for dropping as far as I am going to make them drop.
The first guy is Cody Williams. The advanced metrics have mixed feelings on Cody Williams. His shooting numbers were pretty good at Colorado, but caution: They may be fools-gold.
Williams has shot on pretty low volume, so it is hard to get a good read into whether his shooting numbers are legit or not. There are a few things we do know. Cody Williams has shot great from three, at 42%. On the other hand, Cody Williams shoots an underwhelming 71% from the line. So, which one is more real? Probably the free throw. Here is why. Cody Williams has not taken many threes, with a low 0.211 three-point attempt rate. On the contrary, Williams has shot free throws at a pretty average rate, 0.387 FTAR. As such, the free throw percentage is based on a more trustworthy sample size. It is also worth noting that, while Williams started really hot from three, he went cold toward the end of the season, which may indicate that he is reverting back to the mean. That said, Cody Williams’s two-point field goal percentage is quite encouraging, so he may not have to be a fantastic three-point shooter.
But then there is everything else, which he is not good at. He is pretty negative in every category that isn’t shooting. Richard Stayman, aka
, made an astute observation on Cody Williams. Among underclassmen 1st round picks over 6’7” with a sub 5 box plus minus (including Cody Williams), the outcomes have not been good: Patrick Williams, Jaylen Brown (the outlier), Kevin Knox, Cam Reddish, Ziaire Williams, Jett Howard, Moe Harkless, Troy Brown, Jaden Mcdaniels (another outlier, but he’s a defensive specialist), and Jarrell Martin. You can point to Jaylen Brown all you want and say, “He can become Jaylen Brown”. But the reality is that Brown is the exception to the rule, so you have to make a pretty darn compelling argument that Cody Williams is akin to Jaylen Brown. So, I am low on Cody Williams, but I could eat my words if that shooting ends up panning out.Ja’Kobe Walter
Walter just screams to me low-efficiency microwave scorer à la Jordan Clarkson, Cam Thomas, or Jordan Poole. People will probably draft him and think they got good value for him. He may even finish fairly high on future redrafts. However, is this a guy who can contribute to winning basketball? Maybe off the bench in certain situations, but in most cases, the answer is likely no.
Ja’Kobe Walter is an interesting case, because on the one end, he has one of the better free throw percentages among young guards. I love a good free throw percentage. However, the inefficiency is really alarming. He shot 38% in college. What are his numbers going to look like in the NBA? Heck, Brandon Miller had a great field goal percentage in college, but still sucked at it in his first year in the NBA.
With Ja’Kobe Walter, we may be preparing ourselves for one of the worst seasons in NBA history à la Darius Garland, Zach LaVine, or Scoot Henderson…Wait, none of those guys are actually that bad! Well, maybe Scoot is. Verdict is still out on that. So, even if Ja’Kobe Walter brings his poor efficiency in college to the NBA in his rookie season, that does not necessarily mean he is doomed to be a terrible player.He still has the skills to be serviceable. However, he still has a long way to go, and sometimes you have to ask yourself whether it is worth taking that risk for a player that may max out as a serviceable 6th man.
Stephon Castle
We have finally arrived at Castle. To all my Castle stans out there: What can Castle do?
“Castle has size.” Ok, I am a sucker for size too, but Jalen Hood-Schifino had size too. My question is what can he do?
“Castle played a critical role for the best college team in the country as a freshman”. Now I am a little more convinced, but in what ways did he contribute, and are we sure that his success at UConn is not just because he was in a system that maximized his talents and that also had a team loaded with other draftable talents?
“Well, Castle plays D.” Once again, I am amenable to this argument. So often people go after tall guards expecting them to be better defenders than most guards, but they more often than not end up as disappointments. I feel like Castle could legitimately be a pretty solid defender at the point guard position, but if I want a solid defending point guard, I could just go after Kris Dunn or Dante Exum—not necessarily what most people would consider high level prospects. So, he needs more than defense. Also, I might point out, that it is not like he an elite defender. He is good, but I don’t think he projects All-NBA Defensive Team upside. While having solid Defensive Win Shares at 0.074, he is only average in defensive block plus minus, where he has a 3.1. Also, his steals rate is actually below average at only 1.1 steals per 36 minutes. That’s not the number you’d expect from a guard that boasts big defensive upside. I think Castle is a solid defender, but I think people overvalue his impact on that end.
So, what else does Castle do? He can’t pass well, which is not what you want for a point guard. While is AST/TO is okay, his AST/USG is subpar. “Ok, throw him over to shooting guard. He has the size!” But he would then become a shooting guard who can’t shoot! He shoots a very low 27% from three, and while is free throw is okay at 76%, it is nothing super inspiring.
I’m not saying Castle is a bust. There’s a good chance he carves out some role in the NBA. However, we need to stop the crazy hype this guy has gotten as of late. He’s not a top-tier prospect, not even in this draft. Call me crazy for putting him at 22, but this is probably around where he deserves to be if we are being generous.
Zaccharie Risacher
Time for my “sizzling” hot take. Listen, a lot of people are low on Risacher too. But few are willing to drop him out of the top 10, as many still have him at their NUMBER ONE PICK on their draft boards. To them, I ask why?
I do not see the Risacher appeal. Sure, he is 6’9”. Great. So is Henri Drell (A perfect candidate for TNT’s “Who he play for?”). Size means nothing if there are not skills to accompany that size. Simply put, I’m not sure Risacher has the necessary skills to succeed to a high degree in this league. But still, videos are being posted by FIBA labeled “Next Wemby?” Am I missing something?
Risacher benefited from a lot of the earlier hyped prospects (Collier, Holland, Buzelis, Edwards, etc. (No, I have not forgotten them)) dropping down the board. As a result, people picked Europeans to fill the gaps. At the time this was happening, Risacher was on fire. I thought he may be worthy of the first overall pick myself. His 3-pointer was through the roof, he was generally efficient in a league where it is hard for young guys to be efficient, and he had great positional size. I got it then. But things have changed.
I was always a bit uncomfortable with Risacher’s low free throw percentage. For most of the season in Europe, Risacher has shot sub-70% from the line, which is pretty much a death nail for people aspiring to become elite shooters (with exception to Joe Harris, who I will never understand). The more I thought over this fact, the lower are I got on Risacher. Then, Risacher went completely cold. Gone were the days of Risacher shooting 45% from three. Now he has dropped to 39%, which is still good, but it is a dramatic drop-off from his early success in this regard. Interestingly enough, in the same period of time, Risacher’s free throw percentage has gone up. It seems that the two numbers are starting to fall in line with reality, which is probably that Risacher is an average to good shooter, but not great.
I now will ask the question that I often ask of prospects on whom I am low. What else can he do? If shooting is the selling point on Risacher, what else does he have, because his shooting is clearly not good enough to draft him on that alone. Some like Risacher’s defense, saying he could be a three and D guy, but he is likely not great at threes or D. To illustrate, Risacher has a 103.2 defensive rating. Once again, I wouldn’t put too much weight into this number, but I expect a little better if you are selling him as a good defender.
Otherwise, Risacher is poor at just about everything else. He doesn’t pass well, nor does he rebound well. So, are people actually considering taking a guy number one overall because he can be a mediocre three and D guy? I’m sorry. Risacher is not deserving of the top pick, he’s not deserving of a top 5 pick, and he’s not even deserving of a lottery pick.
Take my advice GMs (that most definitely are not reading this), if Risacher falls in your lap, draft him and then trade him, because perceptions of Risacher almost definitely exceed his actual ability. Once again, I’m not going to throw the bust label on him just yet. There are certainly worst prospects, but he is not a top-tier prospect whatsoever.Trey Alexander
I like Trey Alexander if he becomes a point guard. While he is billed as a shooting guard, he possesses skills necessary to be a successful point guard. First, his size, at 6’4” is better for a point guard than a shooting guard, where I typically look for just a smidge more size. Second, he passes the ball like a point guard, with a high AST/USG and AST/TO ratio. Third, he is likely to be a solid shooter, with an 82% free throw (though the three-pointer could improve).
One area where I find him particularly intriguing is on defense. On the surface, his defense is not noteworthy, but I think he has potential here, with a large 6’10” wingspan. Once again, if he plays point guard, that could be quite the advantage.
The reason I don’t have him higher is because the general efficiency is not there and the age, which, while not terrible, is not great. So, while I am optimistic on Alexander, I am also cautious.
Tristan da Silva
There is a lot to like about Tristan da Silva. Probably the thing that makes him most attractive to NBA teams is his proven shooting ability accompanied with is 6’9” frame. He also plays clean, with low turnovers, fouls, and a good AST/TO ratio. What you get from da Silva is a mature basketball player who can shoot well at a good size. There is a lot to like in that regard.
However, he is quite old. At 23, I start to get uncomfortable, even when I see high efficiency players like da Silva. Thus, the upside is small, however, I think he could contribute instantly to a team.
Alex Karaban
This guy can certainly shoot. He doesn’t seem terrible at defense either. And the size is encouraging. That makes for a solid three and d-ish role player off the bench. Maybe his upside is not as high as some guys that I have behind him. But the floor is solid. Think Georges Niang. A role player who will find minutes because he has size and can shoot and isn’t terrible on D. If you want to take somebody else over him, then that’s fine, but the reality is that Karaban is a safe pick at 19, and you’d be getting your expected value for the draft slot. I know that’s not the best pitch, but Karaban has been a consistently good performer, and the metrics quite like him. I wouldn’t be jumping up and down for joy if my team took him, but I wouldn’t be screaming at the TV in anger either.
Terrence Shannon
Shannon was good in his last season at Illinois. He dropped out of the draft last year, and to be honest, I was not that high on him. That said, he has really stepped it up a level this year.
This is typical of older prospects. There are a few like Shannon in this year’s draft, including Dalton Knecht, Kevin McCullar, etc. However, of this bunch, I like Shannon the best. Shannon actually has had a pretty solid career the whole way through. He also is a bona fide scorer. But he is old. Like almost 24 old.
It is pretty rare for players over 24 to pan out in the league. Chris Duarte is the prime example that comes to my mind. Nearly immaculate statistically, and it seemed like it would somewhat translate his rookie year. I can remember when he was a front-runner for the rookie of the year award early in his first season. That said, he eventually faded away, as many in the NBA do. I don’t know for sure if Shannon is the same case, but I do fear for that.
That said, if he translates even somewhat to the NBA, he could be quite a good player. So, I would keep my eyes on him.
Payton Sandfort
Sandfort may come off as that prototypical older, college player who can shoot the lights out. However, I think there is more to his game than that. Ironically, I will point out that he does, in fact, shoot the lights out. His three-pointer was nothing extraordinary this year, at 38%, however, he may have the best free throw percentage in this year’s class, at 91%.
As noted, his skills go beyond his shooting. He is also a pretty good passer and rebounder, meaning you don’t necessarily have to stick him in the corner to chuck threes. He can do more than that.
I’m not super high on the guy, but you have a solid prospect here.
KJ Simpson
KJ Simpson is a guy I would be tempted to take in the high teens to be honest. He just does not have many weaknesses, with exception to his size (6’2”). This leads me to believe he won’t be a great defender in the league, but he could be quite good at everything else.
Despite his size, he rebounds at a high rate, which indicates good hustle and awareness. He is also one of the best shooters in this class, with high three-point percentage and free throw. He also passes the ball pretty well. He is a safe pick.
I would not say there is anything that pops off the page too much for me with KJ Simpson, but I think, given the opportunity, he could be a solid NBA back-up point guard.
Juan Nunez
Juan Nunez is a strange prospect. He passes and rebounds really well. He may be a triple-double threat. However, his shooting, especially for a point guard, is complete and utter garbage. This past season in Germany, he shot only 32% from deep and 64% from the line. I would expect those numbers from a center.
On top of this, he is not a particularly great defender, though he does get steals at a very high rate, which is encouraging.
I think Nunez works out in the NBA just because he is great at what he is good at, meaning he can certainly play a role in the NBA. However, the shooting has to improve if he wants to be more than a back-up.
Dalton Knecht
Just because a guy scores a lot in college doesn’t make him a good NBA prospect. To illustrate, a list of power-five conference players who were top ten in points per game as upper classmen, as is Knecht:
-Zach Edey
-Terrence Shannon
-Terrell Brown
-Luka Garza
-Mason Jones
-Carsen Edwards
-Buddy Hield
-Kat Barber
-DJ Newbill
-Joe Young
Wow! What an elite group! There are a few solid players in this group, including Hield, and well, I guess Garza is still playing technically. Oh wait! Basically, nobody in this group is playing considerable minutes with exception to Hield. That’s right. Being able to score at a high level in college, even on a competitive team, is not indicative of NBA success. Now, you may have a few questions at this point.
First question: Are you implying that good college scorers make bad NBA players? No, I’m simply implying that being good at scoring alone is not an indicator of NBA success.
Second question: Why did you put Zach Edey and Terrence Shannon higher if they, along with Knecht, are known for their scoring? Well, a few things. Zach Edey is 7’4” and rebounds like a mad man. He’s more than just his scoring. Plus, he’s been playing at a high level his whole college career. Terrence Shannon, on the other hand, admittedly bears a lot of similarities to Knecht. Neither are that strong at things other than scoring. However, why I give Shannon the edge over Knecht is because Shannon, for one, is bigger. Second, Shannon actually outscored Knecht this season for an equally competitive team to Knecht’s, so I am not really sure why most put Knecht over Shannon in the first place. Third, Shannon has been more consistent over the course of his college career, while also improving every year. On the contrary, Dalton Knecht, sort of just rapidly jumped into the picture this season after playing for Northern Colorado for a few years, as well as juco. Shannon is a surer thing than Knecht in this sense, as Knecht may simply have had a fluke of a season at Tennessee. Fourth, I buy Shannon’s shot a little more given that Shannon has consistently shot around 80% from free throw, compared to Knecht shooting around 75% for his career. I know free throw is not the end-all-be-all, but if I am going in on a player known for pretty much exclusively for his scoring (Knecht doesn’t do much else), I am typically looking for someone who is more in the 80% range. Finally, Shannon’s advanced metrics are better, which I think is something that gets more and more important to look into as players get older. Simply put, if you are not efficient as an older player, you likely never will be (not that Knecht is terrible in the regard either).
In summary, I’m not high on Knecht, because he seems like at best an average efficiency, microwave scorer off the bench. He is at the age where I think he needs to show more efficiency or versatility to convince me to take him. Otherwise, he may just be another Chris Duarte, and frankly, Duarte was a better college player.
Bubba Carrington
Bubba Carrington should probably go back to school. He is among the youngest of prospects in this class, so he would still be young next draft, under 20 in fact. So, age concerns would not be the issue next year. As well, he is projected at best to go late first-round. If Carrington improves next season, he could maybe, just maybe, jump into the lottery.
The scary thing for Carrington is, what if he doesn’t improve? If that is the case, he will completely miss his NBA window. But I have faith he can improve.
He has a lot of traits that are encouraging. His free throw percentage is solid for a guy as young as he is, so his shooting will probably improve. He also rebounds quite well, with his good positional size. Finally, while he didn’t rack up a ton of assists in his freshman season at Pitt, he showed solid passing ability, nonetheless, maintaining pretty good efficiency in terms of AST/TO and AST/USG.
Carrington is young and has upside. But making the jump to the NBA may not be the best move, as he would almost definitely spend his season on the bench or in the G-League playing a secondary role. Go back to college, and he can be a key player on a division one team and improve his stock and open up more opportunities for next season.
Mantas Rubstavicius
This is a guy who is just now showing up on my radar, and he may bounce up higher as we get closer to the draft. He is a tall, European guard who shoots well (and not just from free throw). He also boasts an impressive field goal percentage, finishing his two-pointers quite well.
I would be more enticed by Rubstavicius if he did a little more with his size than he does. His defense is not good, in fact, he is basically non-existent there. He also does not rebound much, which could be attributed to a small wingspan, which makes him play smaller than he actually is.
Another concern for me is that he is an older prospect, at 22. It’s actually quite rare to see a professional player over 21 years old enter the draft, so it can be hard to evaluate the extent to which age plays a role in projecting Rubstavicius’s upside.
Melvin Ajinca
I feel like a broken record player, repeating the same things over and over again. Once again, we have a guy with good positional size that shows shooting potential. There is a reason why there are a lot of those in this draft class: NBA teams love that archetype.
Melvin Ajinca may very well be a tall wing that can shoot. The problem is, while Ajinca shows good form, as manifested by a good free throw percentage, he did not actually shoot particularly well this season in France. Also, he quite literally can’t do anything else. He is low efficiency in basically every other element of the game and doesn’t even score that well. Granted, he plays in Europe, and likely suffers from lower usage as a younger player. But I just don’t see him contributing much at anything other than shooting, and even that is not totally guaranteed. So, if the shooting doesn’t translate, nothing will.
Matas Buzelis
Finally time to explain my mega-drop of this draft. Buzelis is virtually undraftable. Drafting Buzelis is akin to drafting Emoni Bates last year. You are getting a guy based completely on what he could be theoretically speaking, with absolutely no evidence that he can do what you want him to do.
I’ll give you the steelman argument for Buzelis. He’s a young, 6’11 forward, who blocks shots at a high rate and has a track record of good shooting in high school. One cannot simply ignore that size coupled with his potential ability to stretch the floor and play good defense as well.
Here’s the problem though. I might give him more benefit of the doubt if he was just having a less-than-great year. However, he is having a bad year to astronomical proportions. Let me give you a few stats: 26% from three, a sub 70% free throw percentage, 13.6 PER, 97.3 offensive rating, and a defensive rating of 117.4. These numbers are really bad, and it’s hard to find people as inefficient as him that have had a successful NBA career. It also does not help that he played in the G-League, which has a proven track record of ruining good prospects.
At the end of the day, my draft judgments are largely made on data, and I have found a lot of success in doing so. In short, the data hates Buzelis, no matter how you tinker with it. Even the blocks don’t seem that impressive when you look back at that defensive rating.
So, when you draft Matas Buzelis, know you are drafting Emoni Bates, not Franz Wagner. Admittedly, Bates had a good season in the G-League, but that was the G-League after all.
Baylor Scheierman
If you are looking for offensive versatility, Scheierman may be the guy to go with. He can shoot, pass, and rebound all with good efficiency. His defensive numbers are not great, but not terrible either. Where Scheierman is a bit harder to buy into is his age, being almost 24 years old. This is where it gets hard to want to draft an otherwise enticing prospect. That said, it is worth noting that Scheierman has been doing similar things most of his college career. For this reason, I am still somewhat hopeful for Scheierman.
Jaylon Tyson
A lot of people are really high on Jaylon Tyson. I can somewhat see why. He shoots pretty well (nothing special). He also has good positional size, passes well, and rebounds well. However, nothing to me stands out relative to others within the same prospect mold: The older, well-rounded guard. His advanced metrics are not great either, especially on defense. He is an inoffensive pick, but there are probably more interesting guys a team could go after.
Coleman Hawkins
A really good passing power forward à la Scottie Barnes. He also shoots pretty well; however, the defense is questionable, and you hope for more in that regard from a power forward. Finally, he is a bit on the older side, so the upside, once again, is questionable.
Tristen Newton
A lot of people are looking at Stephon Castle, but I honestly might trust Tristen Newton to do more of what everyone wants Castle to do. Newton is a guard that, like Castle, has good size. But he shoots a little better, though Newton is probably not fantastic in this regard. He also passes well and plays solid defense, though he could have a higher steal rate.
While I think Newton certainly boasts a well-rounded game, he is also 23, so he may benefit from being a little more mature than other prospects. At this point in the draft, you look for guys who really stand out in a particular category, and I wouldn’t say Newton is particularly great at anything other than rebounding. That said, he is a bit of a jack-of-all-trades, master of none.
Pelle Larsson
If Larsson were to transition over to the point guard position, his stock may be higher. He passes very well, and he would have fantastic size. He also is a pretty good shooter. That said, he does need to improve his free throw. Also, as with many at this point in the draft, he is older. So, I wouldn’t take him much higher than here, but there are some encouraging signs.
Devin Carter
Devin Carter was a good defender in college and was really impressive at grabbing boards. To what degree he carries that over to the NBA is questionable. He is fairly diminutive as a point guard. I’m not saying that he won’t have good D in the NBA. I think he will probably be fine. However, I just don’t think he will be great, and it is hard to buy into this guy if you are not sure his defense will be stellar. This is because his shooting is pretty average to sub-par, he’s fairly old, and his passing is bad, which means you might have to put him at the two-guard. That’s not optimal given his size. As such, it’s hard for me to want to take Carter, even though his stock seems to be rocketing in the last month or two.
Isaiah Collier
I’ll probably get some hate for this take, but Collier is almost undraftable. A lot of people talk about how Collier is a good passer, but his assists per 36 minutes were only average this season. I can understand the argument that USC was bad, so he didn’t get much help from his teammates, however, his AST/TO, at 1.29, is below average, and that’s the kind of stat that isn’t so dependent on teammates.
However, the real reason I am so low on Collier is because he is basically bad at everything else. He shot a painful 67% from the line. Once again, this is the kind of statistic where teammates or system do not make an impact. Either you can make them, or you can’t. Sometimes you can tolerate a point guard who isn’t a spectacular shooter, but Collier is straight-up a liability in that regard.
Finally, advanced metrics do not like him one bit. He is below-average to bad in just about every advanced metric, which is quite disappointing considering this guy was projected to be the top pick in this draft at certain points.
The only thing that Collier is solid on is 2-point scoring. Good for him, but he needs more than that to succeed in the NBA.
Kevin McCullar
McCullar has also only really popped off this season, which has me somewhat concerned, because the efficiency was not really there in prior seasons. I appreciate the improvement; however, it is hard to assess whether the improvement is lasting, or just by virtue of McCullar being an older player. McCullar is quite old, so it is hard to imagine him becoming a major impact player.
One thing that I am not quite understanding is a lot of people are putting him among the best defenders in this draft, including Clingan, Dunn, and Sheppard. He does not rise to their level. In reality, his defensive metrics are pretty average. I would not expect him to become great in this category, which does tank his stock a little, which is heavily dependent on his defensive value.
That said, there is a place for well-rounded players if McCullar’s last season translates into the NBA.
Cam Spencer
Cam Spencer is arguably the best numbers guy in this draft. He shoots the lights out, with a 44% three-point percentage and a 91% free throw. He may be the best shooter in this class. He also passes with incredibly high efficiency and has impressive advanced metrics.
Here’s the problem: He is the oldest prospect in this class. At 24 years old, he’d practically be entering the NBA in his prime. As such, he’s going to really have to hit the ground running to prove himself an NBA level player, because what you get in his rookie season may be about as good as you will get for the rest of his career. Spencer is good, no doubt, but is he good enough to stay in the league?
Bobi Klintman
I get the appeal of Klintman. Toss him into the pile of “big guy who can shoot” prospects. Klintman is effectively an older version of Tidjane Salaun, who shoots solid from the line and gets steals at a high rate. My concern with Klintman is he seems to be at a similar point of development as Salaun, despite being three years older.
Sure, Klintman’s game is a little more mature than Salaun’s, but in terms of statistical output, it’s about the same. I would hope if you were 21+, you would be a bit more efficient at this point. As such, I’m not high on Klintman.
Kel’el Ware
Ware has fluctuated a lot on my big boards. At some points, I have had him in my top five, but now I have him in the cellar. Why the loss of faith? Centers who are not statistically dominant entering the NBA usually don’t go too far, and Ware is not dominant.
He has shot pretty well this season, in fact, great, at 43% from downtown. This would normally be very encouraging to me. However, this is in light of the fact that he only shot 27% last season, and his free throw percentage has always been pretty disappointing, at 71% last season and 63% this season. I just don’t buy the shot much.
If I don’t buy him much on the offensive end, he needs to sell me on the defensive end—which he doesn’t. His defensive rating, at 102.3, simply won’t cut it. Also, despite having pretty good size, his block rate is only okay. Ware could have a solid career in the league, but I am not sure what sort of role he can really play.
Reece Beekman
Beekman can pass and play defense really well. I think his best way to earn minutes in the league is by becoming a defensive specialist, but to what extent his defense can translate in the league depends on how much his large wingspan can overcome his shortness.
Justin Edwards
Edwards has improved quite a bit over the college season, so I am not going to instantly dismiss him. That said, despite the improvements, the numbers are not great. He doesn’t really stand out anywhere. His shooting is solid, but other than that, there is nothing else he does particularly well.
He also, despite being a freshman, is not super young. That may explain why his stock has fallen so much relative to other fallers, like Collier, Buzelis, and Holland. As you get older, it is harder to improve, and not that Edwards can’t improve (he certainly has improved), but it is hard to view him as having high ceiling like the other fallers I mentioned.
Yves Missi
I don’t get this guy. Why do people like him so much? First, he doesn’t shoot. He doesn’t even attempt to shoot, attempting a grand total of zero threes this season. So, I interpret that as he is built to be a traditional big. So, what is a traditional big? Usually, a guy who can post up, score inside, rebound, and protect the paint. I’m not sure he does any of those things. He isn’t even that tall.
Usually, when people buy into a questionable prospect, there is some trait, be that size, shooting ability, or defense that makes that prospect intriguing. I am not seeing anything with Missi. In fact, I am only putting him on this big board, because other people clearly see talent in him. If someone would like to explain to me why Missi is going in the teens in a lot of mock drafts, please do so. I am all ears.Jamal Shead
Shead is with Nikola Topic and Tyler Kolek in being one of the best passers in this class. He is also an impressive defender, despite his diminutive size (6’1”). The size is a bit concerning for me. I usually don’t deduct many points until a player falls under 6’2”, as many good to great NBA players play at this size. However, once height dips under the 6’2” mark, players start to struggle making it in the NBA. Shead also isn’t a fantastic shooter, so you have to take that into consideration. However, he was the best player for a Houston team that was among the best teams in the country this past year.
PJ Hall
Hall is another “tall guy that can shoot” prospect. I was higher on Hall earlier in the year; however, I am not that convinced he can shoot. He has only had one great three-point shooting year in his four in college, shooting 39% last year. On the contrary, he only shot 31% this year, which is not a great look for someone who sells himself on his shooting. I think a lot of people buy his upside because he has a solid free throw for someone his size, which, as you most definitely can tell, is an argument to which I am sympathetic. However, for most of his career, he has hovered around 78% from the line, which is honorable, but nothing outstanding. Once again though, you have to put that in context with his size.
I ask this question always when considering these bigs that can shoot: What else can he do other than shoot decent? The whole point of having more size is to give the prospect more ability to take advantage of mismatches, play better D, and rebound. However, he does none of these things super well, despite his size. So, what is really the point of drafting PJ Hall as a tall guy who can shoot, if really, he feels more just like a shooting specialist who just happens to be tall.
Hunter Sallis
Hunter Sallis shoots well but isn’t super impressive at anything else. The size is good if he plays point guard, which is probably why a lot of people have their eyes on him. I do expect a bit more efficiency in terms of advanced metrics for someone above 21 years of age.
Jaylen Wells
I’m starting to get lazy. Middle-aged forward prospect. Great on offense, trash at D. Shoots really well. Probably projects as a shooter you can pull off the bench possibly.
Antonio Reeves
See Jaylen Wells, except in guard form and older.
Ajay Mitchell
See Antonio Reeves, except playing for mid-major
Jalen Bridges
See Jaylen Wells, except older.
Jaxson Robinson
Jaxson Robinson is the epitome of a BYU prospect. He shoots free throws really well and does nothing else. He even has a weird variation of his first name. Very BYU. You can probably turn to Robinson to shoot well, but a team has to be convinced his shooting is truly exceptional, because that is a pretty replaceable skill in isolation. Shooting 35% from three this season, I’m not sure, despite his ridiculous 91% free throw, he can stand apart in his shooting.
Baba Miller
Really tall guy (7’0”) who plays small forward. But this time, he can’t shoot, and there is no indication that he can develop a shot. Baba Miller is so bad on offense that he has a negative offensive box plus minus. Do you realize how bad you have to be to have negative offensive box plus minus?
I don’t understand why he doesn’t just play center, because that is where his skill set is better suited. He seems to block shots pretty well, which may suggest that he has potential to be a rim protector. However, he is not worth it if you intend to put him at a wing spot.
Adem Bona
Most of the time a player opts to return to college after mulling over a draft entry, they improve their stock. Bona is not one of those players. Last season, I would have considered taking Bona in the early second round. This season, he may be undraftable.
In short, Bona has had a disappointing season at UCLA. His stats are underwhelming. He can’t shoot and he’s not an elite rim protector. He also is a bit small for what I want in a center.
Bronny James
He’s not a good prospect but do it to screw over the Lakers!
Conclusion: I have decided to cap my big board at 60 players. This is partly because I am lazy and have already spent way too much time writing up this big board. However, it is also because, if a prospect is over 60, I likely consider that prospect undraftable. But if you insist on me giving my analysis on Trevon Brazile or Nikola Djurisic, just know that I have no hope in them!
Thank you to Tankathon, Locked on Jazz, Locked on NBA Big Board, Sports Reference, and the NBA for their data and their insights that I pulled from to make this big board!
Wow! This is really good draft analysis. This guy really knows his stuff
Wrong. This guy doesn't know what he is talking about. Buzelis will be the best player in this draft. Bet