Introducing Prospect Score
At last, I have created a catch-all metric to evaluate NBA draft prospects
I’ve now on numerous attempts aimed to create a catch-all metric to evaluate NBA draft prospects. On every attempt, the results looked bad. I’d have Delon Wright, Malachi Flynn, and Shake Milton dominating, which didn’t give me confidence in the metrics. However, this time, I hunkered down, and did a very thorough data analysis that led me to Prospect Score, a generally reliable metric for evaluating NBA talent.
Disclaimer: Prospect Score isn’t perfect. It isn’t fantastic at predicting stars. For that, I think it’s best to look for the successful archetypes I noted in my “Bonafide Studs” article. However, it does a pretty good job at estimating what one can expect from them: Are they starters, role players, or unplayable all together. In this sense, Prospect Score is fantastic. I’ve found it is not actually that hard to spot stars and busts, but it is hard to spot who is simply a rotation player. I think prospect score does this quite well.
In terms of general strengths and weaknesses, Prospect Score excels with guards and centers, but struggles more with forwards. This doesn’t shock me, as I have always found it harder to project forwards. That said, Prospect Score still does a fine job with forwards. So how do I calculate Prospect Score?
Prospect Score projects a prospect’s projected VORP after eight years of playing in the NBA using 12 different indicators. The indicators are as follows: True Shooting Percentage, Free Throw Percentage, Points/36, Assists/36, Rebounds/36, Steals/36, Blocks/36, Turnovers/36, Assist to Turnover Ratio, Height, and Age.
To project a players VORP over eight years is a four-step process: First, I gather data on every first-round prospect of the past nine years’ VORP and then also gather their outcomes in each of the indicators for the season prior to their draft. All players are sorted within their positional group, separated from players not of their position. If a player plays multiple positions, their higher scoring position is the one that is used as their final Prospect Score. Second, I adjust their VORP numbers according to how many years they have played in the league. Because progression in the NBA is not linear, with most players struggling mightily in their rookie seasons only to improve drastically in year two or three, I removed players from the 2023 draft class from the data. However, for the remaining players, I adjust their VORP as if they played eight years in the league. To illustrate, I did not adjust the 2015 class’ VORP, but I multiplied the VORPs of the 2022 class by 8 to put all former prospects on even footing in terms of VORP. Otherwise, Cameron Payne would outperform Chet Holmgren in the data. Third, I take each prospect’s indicator stats and translate them onto a scale, with the average at 50, thereby making the measurement of all indicators uniform. Finally, I calculate the trend line of each indicator in relation to the adjusted VORP, and by doing so, I can use the trend line’s equation to estimate a player’s VORP given the outcome of a player in each indicator. Once I have the result of the trend line equation for each indicator, I find the average of all twelve indicators’ results to get a final projected VORP. However, the job isn’t done here, because I then adjust for position, by subtracting the average projected VORP for each prospect within the position to ensure all positions receive roughly equivalent values. After this is done, we have a Prospect Score, with values ranging from roughly -2.5 to 2.5, the higher being better.
Having discussed how to calculate Prospect Score, it is time for the fun part: Showing who comes out on time and at the bottom. The top prospects since 2015 in Prospect Score are as follows:
Ben Simmons 2.68
Luka Doncic 1.7
Ja Morant 1.63
Alperen Sengun 1.58
Cade Cunningham 1.49
LaMelo Ball 1.43
Chet Holmgren 1.42
Lauri Markkanen 1.34
Zion Williamson 1.3
Trey Murphy III 1.21
Ben Simmons is far and away the top prospect, which is probably not an ideal outcome for prospect score considering what he is now. But Prospect Score does not account for injuries, challenging personalities, and young socialites. That said, people forget how good Ben Simmons was during the years he was good, so I don’t think this was a total loss for Prospect Score.
As for the rest of the top ten, seven of ten became all-stars at least once. Two of those non-all-stars were Cade Cunningham and Chet Holmgren, both of whom I bet makes the game at least once in their careers. The other, Trey Murphy, is a solid starter who makes a sizable impact for Pelicans, being at the back of the pack of ten.
The worst of the worst on the other hand are as follows:
Davion Mitchell
Dragan Bender
Terry Rozier
Aaron Holiday
TyTy Washington
Jerian Grant
Ty Jerome
Malachi Flynn
Jarrett Allen
Skal Labissiere
Prospect Score does another solid job spitting out the busts. Jarrett Allen obviously has surpassed expectations. Terry Rozier has made a living off of being an empty stats, stat stuffer, so I wouldn’t call that an L for Prospect Score. And then Davion Mitchell, the worst of the worst, has carved out a role as an okay defensive specialist. But the rest, well, Prospect Score was pretty on the money.
Prospect generally does a good job, with the top third of prospects primarily composed of stars and starters, but the last 2/3 is primarily bench players and busts. If there is anything I could say in evaluating Prospect Score, it is that it does a good job at loosely placing players in their reasonable categories.
Now, the part everyone is waiting for. Behold the rankings for the 2024 Draft Class among players that were drafted in the first round.
Donovan Clingan 1.54
Nikola Topic 0.96
Reed Sheppard 0.90
Rob Dillingham 0.59
Alexandre Sarr 0.49
Zach Edey 0.48
Jared McCain 0.46
DaRon Holmes 0.38
Ja’Kobe Walter 0.37
Matas Buzelis 0.30
Tidjane Salaun 0.23
Kel’el Ware 0.16
Devin Carter 0.03
Tristan da Silva 0.02
Zaccharie Risacher -0.02
Pacome Dadiet -0.02
Kyshawn George -0.03
Stephon Castle -0.11
Baylor Scheierman -0.20
Cody Williams -0.27
Ron Holland -0.028
Dalton Knecht -0.30
Ryan Dunn -0.36
Bubba Carrington -0.39
Dillon Jones -0.39
Jaylon Tyson -0.58
AJ Johnson -0.68
Terrence Shannon -0.70
Isaiah Collier -0.82
Yves Missi -0.85
So, how do you dissect this data? Essentially, if you are above 0, you are above average, if you are below 0, you are below average. However, I like to split the data up into more precise groups, with four primary categories:
The Sure Things
Players over 1.3 almost always become all-stars, so that’s good news for Clingan. In fact, 75% of players made the all star game at least once, but that number is likely to jump up to 100%, with Chet Holmgren and Cade Cunningham likely to do so at some point.
The Safe Picks
Meanwhile, players over 0.75 almost always become at least starters, with 88% doing so. That would include Clingan, Topic, and Sheppard. A solid 42% become all-stars, with only 8% becoming rotation players off the bench, and busts total. Essentially, you can expect an all-star or two and, at worst, one non-starter.
Who Knows?
Above 0.15 to 0.75 is more volatile territory, with players busting, hitting, or midding. In this draft, that’s Dillingham, Sarr, Edey, McCain, Holmes, Walter, Buzelis, Salaun, and Ware. In this group, 21% become all-stars, 58% become starters, and 21% become rotation players off the bench, and 19% bust. Thus, you could expect to see a couple of players in this group become all-stars, four or five to become starters, a couple to become rotation players off the bench, and one or two to bust if trends hold up. That’s not too shabby.
The Low-Ceiling Rotation Players
The next group, players over -0.2, but below 0.15, are guys who are sort of just meh. In this group, 76% become NBA players, while the rest completely bust. A quarter become at least starters, with 5% becoming all-stars. So the upside is not great, but you are probably getting an NBA player. In this class, that’s Devin Carter, Tristan da Silva, Zaccharie Risacher, Pacome Dadiet, Kyshawn George, Stephon Castle, and Baylor Scheierman. Basically, choose one of the group to become a starter, then choose one to bust, and then the rest will come off the bench.
The Danger Zone
The last group is where the worst prospects land, being prospects under -0.2. That’s not to say they are guaranteed busts. There have been a handful of solid players that prevent this group from being damning. That said, 52% end up busting and 32% become bench players. That’s far from great. On the bright side, 16% become starters, and half of those guys become all-stars. Those in the danger zone in this class are: Williams, Holland, Knecht, Dunn, Carrington, Jones, AJ Johnson, Shannon, Collier, and Missi.
A Note on Second Rounders
Prospect Score dodges on second round players. The overwhelming majority of second rounders don’t pan out, and there are usually reasons for that. As well, the second round is a breeding ground for older, but productive prospects, which don’t pan out at high rates. That said, I do like to look at the Prospect Scores of prospects who were projected first round, but fell dramatically in the draft: Bol Bol, Leonard Miller, and this year, Kyle Filipowski and Johnny Furphy. I’m also going to give you all Tyler Smith, Juan Nunez, and Ulrich Chomche, as while they weren’t clear first round projections, they do yield interesting results.
Juan Nunez: 0.96 (Safe Pick)
Ulrich Chomche: 0.90 (Safe Pick)
Kyle Filipowski: 0.76 (Safe Pick)
Tyler Smith: 0.20 (Who Knows?)
Johnny Furphy: 0.20 (Who Knows?)
I’ll give a few notes with these prospects. Nunez, on the surface, looks like an amazing prospect, however, there is a reason he wasn’t considered a first round prospect by many. He can’t shoot. However, Prospect Score loooovvvves this guy because he does everything else at a pretty elite level: Passing, defense, rebounding, etc. Nunez is interesting, because if he pans out, Prospect Score may suggest that versatility is more important than shooting. But if Nunez fails, that may suggest that Prospect Score undervalues shooting. It could also suggest Nunez was not given adequate opportunity to prove himself, but that’s a topic for another day…
Chomche also performed well. I think Chomche has the highest upside of any player in this draft. He looks like a drop big that shoots. In other words, a unicorn. But, the reason he fell to the second round is because his sample size is incredibly small and his level of completion is questionable. Many teams have taken swings on low-sample-size prospects, like James Wiseman and Darius Garland. Some work out, some don’t. It’s certainly a swing to go for these prospects, but I think the Raptors were wise to take that swing, especially as late as they did.
Kyle Filipowski is the most interesting second rounder. It’s becoming fairly apparent that his fall in the draft was out of concern for Filipowski’s personal issues. Frankly, I find this is ridiculous. The NBA seems perfectly content to give players like Miles Bridges chances despite charges of domestic violence, but it is not giving those chances to Filipowski because he has a weird relationship with a girl six years older than him. I get it’s weird, but there a bigger red flags that could exist than that. The reason I go on this rant is because Filipowski is a solid, safe prospect that performs exceptionally well on Prospect Score. In fact, his score would put him as number six in this draft. Let me get this straight, I don’t actually think Filipowski is the sixth best prospect in this class. He can’t protect the paint super well, and for a stretch big, his shooting is only okay. However, it is hard to ignore as good of a score as he got. Not to say that Filipowski will be a star. I don’t think he will be. But, I think Filipowski will far exceed his draft position. For as bad of a draft as the Jazz had according to Prospect Score, the Filipowski pick was a breath of fresh air.
Tyler Smith and Johnny Furphy were two other guys I was fairly high on. I still have faith in them, particularly Furphy. However, they fall in the “Who Knows?” category, so it may not actually be that outrageous that they fell. That said, Furphy especially shows some good signs, being an efficient and decent shooting, young wing. I think the Spurs should be thrilled to have him, especially as they also grabbed another second round gem in Nunez.
Conclusion
Prospect Score is imperfect, but it is about as good as any metric at predicting NBA talent. That said, time will tell, between the lines, if these prospects have what it takes, or not…
Who have thought!