Blind Drafting the Past Nine Drafts
A case for an exclusively numbers-based analysis on the NBA draft
“You’d be an idiot to only look at a prospect’s stats when evaluating him”. This is a remark I have heard repeatedly in draft discussions. At first thought, I think this assertion is right. I am a person who values nuance and realizes that the complexity of the world makes crystal clear solutions to problems non-existent. As such, I am quite amenable to this sort of assertion. All information should be considered. However, while many people make this claim in regard to the draft, I’m not sure many people have ever actually put this claim to the test. I seek to do that today.
In order to determine if a strictly numbers-based approach to draft evaluation is wise, I have run a small experiment. I decided to do a blind draft of the first rounds of the past nine drafts, using only player stats and measurables as references. My initial hypothesis when conducting this experiment was that a strictly numbers-based approach would generally yield good results, because stats are in place to maximize your odds of making the right decision. That said, I also hypothesized that a little bit of context could help to build upon a stats-based method of evaluating prospects. As such, I have done two types of blind drafts.
Methodology
My first blind draft involves me looking exclusively at a player’s stats and measurables, with everything else blind. The second blind draft uses the same results of the first blind draft but adjusts it slightly. This is what I will call my “Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections”. So, what is that adjustment? First, I took my initial blind draft and removed any projected 16-30 draft picks out of the top five, until only top-15 projected prospects made up the top five. Second, I took any top three projected prospects and moved them into my top ten. Finally, I took any top five projected prospects and move them into the lottery. In so doing, I acknowledged that scouts and other draft experts may know something I don’t know about players that the stats do not tell me.
So, how do I make these drafts blind? I have screen-shotted every first-round prospect’s Tankathon profile of the past nine drafts. In the process, I left out parts of the profile that indicate their name, place of birth, etc. Unfortunately, this meant cutting out the measurables and the ages of the players, thus, I had to make sure to write down their measurables and their ages on the screen shots manually. Now, wait? Doesn’t this give you an opportunity to memorize the player stats, giving you familiarity once you do the blind draft? Well, you kind of have to just take my word for it here. That said, I can assure you that my memory is not that good, and to make my memory weaker, I did not conduct the blind drafts until about a week after I had made the screen shots. Returning back to how I made the drafts blind, I put all of the players’ profiles into folders divided by their draft class and labeled all of their profiles randomly A-Z (well, I guess A-AD, because there are not 30 letters in the alphabet). What do I mean by randomly labeling? This means I did not give them their letters in regard to their draft position. I just assigned the profiles letters at random until I had exhausted every letter. I did this same thing when assigning them to a draft-class folder, meaning, I did not know which draft I was drafting in until after the fact. As such, each draft was assigned a random letter as well.
Once I had blinded myself to all of the profiles, I started to draft, ranking each profile in order of who I viewed as most promising statistically speaking. What was my method in my ranking? I primarily looked for players who fit under the 14 successful draft archetypes I have addressed in my last article. I did not use an algorithm to sort out the best players statistically, so there is still a human element to the selection. Despite that, I removed anything that could bias me outside the realm of numbers, so it is still a statistically based selection process. To ease the process, I categorized every player into four sub-folders within their draft class: Good, Interesting, Meh, and Bad. Once I did this, I ranked the players within each of these categories and then brought them back together in the main folder. To make sure everything looked good and consistent, I reviewed my rankings several times.
Once I had finished the initial blind draft, I finally paired each player profile to the players’ respective names, thereby unveiling the results of my blind drafts. I was mostly pleased, but there were some big oofs, as you will see. After seeing these results, I made my humility adjustments, that I described earlier, and then listed the rankings out onto this article.
Upon putting out the rankings, I evaluated their success relative to each other and to actual draft picks that were made. I ran this comparison using VORP, one of my favorite catch-all statistics. There are several reasons I used VORP. First, I needed a metric that will evaluate how well a player has played for the totality of his career. Second, I needed a metric that is held in high esteem. According to an interesting HoopsHype article, BPM, which is effectively the same thing as VORP, was the sixth highest-rated statistic among NBA executives. However, it was the only publicly shared metric that I could find that shares a player’s total VORP over the course of his whole career, as opposed to just for an isolated season. Thus, while one could argue that metrics, like FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR or Dunks and Threes’ EPM are better, they are challenging to use for comparing players’ whole careers. For this reason, I think VORP is the best statistic for this experiment.
So, what exactly am I doing when I say I am comparing the two blind drafts, along with the real draft results? I have taken every team’s primary rebuild period since 2015 (which every team has at least one, a big reason I think going back to 2015 is a good stopping point) and I have taken each selection that each team made and attached the selection’s career VORP. I then looked at how I would have drafted if I was in those rebuilding teams’ positions, considering where they drafted and the big boards I have crafted via my blind drafts. I then calculated the total VORP of all the players that teams have selected over their respective rebuild periods and compare those totals with what I have selected in their place.1 Having done all this; I calculated the record of my stats-based and humility adjusted approaches against the selections that GMs actually made.
Without further ado, below are the results of the two blind drafts I conducted, with the stats-based blind draft coming first, and the humility adjusted stats-based blind draft coming immediately after:
2015
Stats-Based
Karl-Anthony Towns
D’Angelo Russell
Myles Turner
Devin Booker
Tyus Jones
Cameron Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
Stanley Johnson
Frank Kaminsky
RJ Hunter
Jahlil Okafor
Justise Winslow
Justin Anderson
Delon Wright
Emmanuel Mudiay
Bobby Portis
Kelly Oubre
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Jerian Grant
Chris McCullough
Terry Rozier
Willie Cauley-Stein
Sam Dekker
Larry Nance Jr.
Trey Lyles
Mario Hezonja
Kevon Looney
Nikola Milutinov
Rashad Vaughn
Jarell Martin
Humility Adjusted
Karl-Anthony Towns
D’Angelo Russell
Myles Turner
Devin Booker
Kristaps Porzingis
Tyus Jones
Cameron Payne
Stanley Johnson
Frank Kaminsky
Jahlil Okafor
RJ Hunter
Justise Winslow
Justin Anderson
Mario Hezonja
Delon Wright
Emmanuel Mudiay
Bobby Portis
Kelly Oubre
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Jerian Grant
Chris McCullough
Terry Rozier
Willie Cauley-Stein
Sam Dekker
Larry Nance Jr.
Trey Lyles
Kevon Looney
Nikola Milutinov
Rashad Vaughn
Jarell Martin
2016
Stats-Based
Domantas Sabonis
Ben Simmons
Jamal Murray
Wade Baldwin (Yikes)
Malik Beasley
Caris LeVert
Denzel Valentine
Buddy Hield
Georgios Papagiannis
Jakob Poeltl
Brice Johnson
Guerschon Yabusele
Pascal Siakam
Juan Hernangomez
Brandon Ingram
Kris Dunn
Thon Maker
Dragan Bender
Ante Zizic
Henry Ellenson
Marquese Chriss
Taurean Prince
Damian Jones
Furkan Korkmaz
Malachi Richardson
DeAndre Bembry
Skal Labissiere
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
Dejounte Murray
Jaylen Brown (Oof on the last two)
Humility Adjusted
Domantas Sabonis
Ben Simmons
Jamal Murray
Denzel Valentine
Buddy Hield
Wade Baldwin
Malik Beasley
Caris LeVert
Brandon Ingram
Jaylen Brown
Georgios Papagiannis
Jakob Poeltl
Kris Dunn
Dragan Bender
Brice Johnson
Guerschon Yabusele
Pascal Siakam
Juan Hernangomez
Thon Maker
Ante Zizic
Henry Ellenson
Marquese Chriss
Taurean Prince
Damian Jones
Furkan Korkmaz
Malachi Richardson
DeAndre Bembry
Skal Labissiere
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
Dejounte Murray
2017
Stats-Based
Jayson Tatum
Jonathan Isaac
Donovan Mitchell
Zach Collins
Malik Monk
Lauri Markkanen
Caleb Swanigan (This one will annoy me a few times in this process)
Lonzo Ball
Luke Kennard
John Collins
Markelle Fultz
DeAaron Fox
TJ Leaf
Josh Hart
Derrick White
Frank Ntilikina
Josh Jackson
OG Anunoby
Dennis Smith
Tony Bradley
Justin Patton
Tyler Lydon
Terrance Ferguson
Alec Peters
Bam Adebayo
DJ Wilson
Harry Giles
Anzejs Pasecniks
Kyle Kuzma
Jarrett Allen (Yeah… I know)
Humility Adjusted
Jayson Tatum
Jonathan Isaac
Donovan Mitchell
Zach Collins
Malik Monk
Lauri Markkanen
Caleb Swanigan
Lonzo Ball
Luke Kennard
Markelle Fultz
DeAaron Fox
John Collins
TJ Leaf
Josh Jackson
Josh Hart
Derrick White
Frank Ntilikina
OG Anunoby
Dennis Smith
Tony Bradley
Justin Patton
Tyler Lydon
Terrance Ferguson
Alec Peters
Bam Adebayo
DJ Wilson
Harry Giles
Anzejs Pasecniks
Kyle Kuzma
Jarrett Allen
2018
Stats-Based
Luka Doncic (Bingo!)
Jaren Jackson jr.
Trae Young
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Swag)
Josh Okogie (Not swag)
Miles Bridges
Zhaire Smith (Even less swag)
Wendell Carter Jr.
Robert Williams
Kevin Huerter
DeAndre Ayton
Mohamed Bamba
Mikal Bridges
Marvin Bagley
Anfernee Simons
Michael Porter Jr.
Landry Shamet
Dzanan Musa
Collin Sexton
Jacob Evans
Donte DiVincenzo
Lonnie Walker
Chandler Hutchison
Troy Brown
Kevin Knox
Moritz Wagner
Grayson Allen
Omari Spellman
Jerome Robinson
Aaron Holiday
Humility Adjusted
Luka Doncic
Jaren Jackson jr.
Trae Young
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Miles Bridges
Josh Okogie
Zhaire Smith
Wendell Carter Jr.
DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley
Robert Williams
Kevin Huerter
Mohamed Bamba
Mikal Bridges
Anfernee Simons
Michael Porter Jr.
Landry Shamet
Dzanan Musa
Collin Sexton
Jacob Evans
Donte DiVincenzo
Lonnie Walker
Chandler Hutchison
Troy Brown
Kevin Knox
Moritz Wagner
Grayson Allen
Omari Spellman
Jerome Robinson
Aaron Holiday
2019
Stats-Based
Ja Morant
Zion Williamson
Tyler Herro
Grant Williams (The starting point of a bad class that nobody really talks about being bad)
PJ Washington
Goga Bitadze
Jaxson Hayes
Jordan Poole
Chuma Okeke
Jarrett Culver
Coby White
Nikiel Alexander-Walker
Matisse Thybulle
Dylan Windler
Brandon Clarke
Keldon Johnson
RJ Barrett
Nassir Little
Sekou Doumbouya
Cameron Johnson
Rui Hachimura
Ty Jerome
Mfiondu Kabengele
Darius Bazley
Darius Garland (I hate small sample sizes, and that showed here, given the small sample size on Darius Garland’s profile)
Luka Samanic
Cam Reddish
Romeo Langford
DeAndre Hunter
Kevin Porter Jr.
Humility Adjusted
Ja Morant
Zion Williamson
Tyler Herro
PJ Washington
Jaxson Hayes
Grant Williams
Goga Bitadze
Jordan Poole
Chuma Okeke
RJ Barrett
Jarrett Culver
Coby White
Darius Garland
DeAndre Hunter
Nikiel Alexander-Walker
Matisse Thybulle
Dylan Windler
Brandon Clarke
Keldon Johnson
Nassir Little
Sekou Doumbouya
Cameron Johnson
Rui Hachimura
Ty Jerome
Mfiondu Kabengele
Darius Bazley
Luka Samanic
Cam Reddish
Romeo Langford
Kevin Porter Jr.
2020
Stats-Based2
Tyrese Haliburton
Alexej Pokusevski (Hey, I could have picked him at one. Lol.)
Aaron Nesmith
Jalen Smith
Onyeka Okongwu
Zeke Nnaji
Killian Hayes
LaMelo Ball
Josh Green
James Wiseman
Udoka Azubuike
Isaiah Stewart
Devin Vassell
Kira Lewis Jr.
Tyrese Maxey (Sorry)
Patrick Williams
Anthony Edwards (Sorrier)
RJ Hampton
Obi Toppin
Immanuel Quickley
Jaden McDaniels
Malachi Flynn
Payton Pritchard
Leandro Bolmaro
Isaac Okoro
Deni Avdija
Desmond Bane (Not my best work)
Precious Achiuwa
Saddiq Bey
Cole Anthony
Humility Adjusted
Tyrese Haliburton
Aaron Nesmith
Jalen Smith
Onyeka Okongwu
Killian Hayes
Alexej Pokusevski
Zeke Nnaji
LaMelo Ball
Anthony Edwards
James Wiseman
Josh Green
Udoka Azubuike
Patrick Williams
Isaac Okoro
Isaiah Stewart
Devin Vassell
Kira Lewis Jr.
Tyrese Maxey
RJ Hampton
Obi Toppin
Immanuel Quickley
Jaden McDaniels
Malachi Flynn
Payton Pritchard
Leandro Bolmaro
Deni Avdija
Desmond Bane
Precious Achiuwa
Saddiq Bey
Cole Anthony
2021
Stats-Based
Alperen Sengun (I’m so smart)
Franz Wagner
Cade Cunningham
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Moses Moody
Bones Hyland
Isaiah Jackson
Cameron Thomas
Jalen Suggs
Josh Giddey
Jalen Johnson
Jaden Springer
Tre Mann
Scottie Barnes (Not as smart on this one)
James Bouknight
DayRon Sharpe
Corey Kispert
Josh Christopher
Kai Jones
Quentin Grimes
Trey Murphy III
Joshua Primo
Chris Duarte
Santi Aldama
Ziaire Williams
Keon Johnson
Davion Mitchell
Jonathan Kuminga (People may give me flack for this one, but Kuminga was not very good until last year, we’ll see if he can keep it going)
Usman Garuba
Humility Adjusted
Alperen Sengun
Franz Wagner
Cade Cunningham
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Moses Moody
Bones Hyland
Isaiah Jackson
Cameron Thomas
Jalen Suggs
Josh Giddey
Jalen Johnson
Jaden Springer
Scottie Barnes
Tre Mann
James Bouknight
DayRon Sharpe
Corey Kispert
Josh Christopher
Kai Jones
Quentin Grimes
Trey Murphy III
Joshua Primo
Chris Duarte
Santi Aldama
Ziaire Williams
Keon Johnson
Davion Mitchell
Jonathan Kuminga
Usman Garuba
2022
Stats-Based
Chet Holmgren
Jabari Smith Jr.
Wendell Moore (This one haunts me, though it does make me curious about how he’d be if he got more minutes)
AJ Griffin (Speaking of minutes, please give this guy some more, he had a great rookie season. Sophomore slump is just a slump.)
Malaki Branham (This is worse than you think. Branham has arguably been the worst NBA player getting minutes since he was drafted.)
Walker Kessler
Mark Williams
Dalen Terry
Jake LaRavia
Jalen Duren
Benedict Mathurin
Keegan Murray
Tari Eason
Paolo Banchero (Flaming hot take. This is not a terrible position for him.)
David Roddy
Shaedon Sharpe
Dyson Daniels
Johnny Davis
TyTy Washington
Jeremy Sochan
Jaden Ivey
Jalen Williams (I wonder how much his older age going into the NBA is making him seem like has a higher ceiling than he actually has. That said, he’s been great.)
Marjon Beauchamp
Ochai Agbaji
Christian Braun
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Nikola Jovic
Blake Wesley
Peyton Watson
Ousmane Dieng
Humility Adjusted
Chet Holmgren
Jabari Smith Jr.
AJ Griffin
Paolo Banchero
Jalen Duren
Wendell Moore
Malaki Branham
Walker Kessler
Mark Williams
Dalen Terry
Jake LaRavia
Benedict Mathurin
Keegan Murray
Jaden Ivey
Tari Eason
David Roddy
Shaedon Sharpe
Dyson Daniels
Johnny Davis
TyTy Washington
Jeremy Sochan
Jalen Williams
Marjon Beauchamp
Ochai Agbaji
Christian Braun
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Nikola Jovic
Blake Wesley
Peyton Watson
Ousmane Dieng
2023
Stats-Based
Victor Wembanyama (Most obvious selection I made. 7’5” dude who shots over 80% from the line. Sign me up.)
Brandon Miller
Brandin Podziemski (I was riding hard on Podziemski last draft, and for good reason)
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Brice Sensabaugh
Kobe Bufkin (I still believe)
Dereck Lively II
Gradey Dick
Jett Howard
Taylor Hendricks
Cason Wallace
Marcus Sasser
Scoot Henderson (This guy was confirming my stats-centric biases all season long)
Bilal Coulibaly
Keyonte George
Dariq Whitehead
Jaime Jacquez Jr.
Jarace Walker
Jordan Hawkins
Anthony Black
Kobe Brown
Julian Strawther
Kris Murray
Noah Clowney
Cam Whitmore (This guy defied my expectations)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Ben Sheppard
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Nic Smith Jr.
Humility Adjusted
Victor Wembanyama
Brandon Miller
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Kobe Bufkin
Brandin Podziemski
Brice Sensabaugh
Dereck Lively II
Gradey Dick
Scoot Henderson
Jett Howard
Taylor Hendricks
Cason Wallace
Marcus Sasser
Bilal Coulibaly
Keyonte George
Dariq Whitehead
Jaime Jacquez Jr.
Jarace Walker
Jordan Hawkins
Anthony Black
Kobe Brown
Julian Strawther
Kris Murray
Noah Clowney
Cam Whitmore
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Ben Sheppard
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Nic Smith Jr.
Now that you have seen the results of my blind drafts, I now present the comparisons of the results of my blind drafts versus what GMs actually did in terms of VORP. I have attached the rebuild years to the right of each team’s name, as well as the VORP totals for each method used and for each individual player:
BOSTON CELTICS 2016-2017
Actual Draft Selections 34.1
Jaylen Brown 9.7
Guerschon Yabusele 0
Ante Zizic -0.2
Jayson Tatum 24.6
Stats-Based Selections 64.1
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Pascal Siakam 17.2
Jayson Tatum 24.6
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 64.1
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Pascal Siakam 17.2
Jayson Tatum 24.6
BROOKLYN NETS 2015-2020
Actual Draft Selections 21.7
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 2.3
Chris McCullough -0.1
Caris LeVert 5.3
Jarrett Allen 14.1
Dzanan Musa -0.4
Stats-Based Selections 12.2
Tyus Jones 8.1
Chris McCollough -0.1
Caris LeVert 5.3
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Dzanan Musa -0.4
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 12.2
Tyus Jones 8.1
Chris McCollough -0.1
Caris LeVert 5.3
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Dzanan Musa -0.4
NEW YORK KNICKS 2015-2021
Actual Draft Selections 19.7
Kristaps Porzingis 16.1
Jerian Grant 0.5
Frank Ntilikna -3.4
Kevin Knox -3.5
RJ Barrett -0.4
Obi Toppin 3.4
Immanuel Quickley 5.7
Quentin Grimes 1.3
Stats-Based Selections 81.1
Myles Turner 11.6
Tyus Jones 8.1
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Udoka Azubuike 0.1
Bones Hyland 0.6
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 81.1
Myles Turner 11.6
Tyus Jones 8.1
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Udoka Azubuike 0.1
Bones Hyland 0.6
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 2015-2018
Actual Draft Selections 12.7
Jahlil Okafor 0
Ben Simmons 14.6
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot -2.7
Furkan Korkmaz 0.1
Markelle Fultz 1.3
Anzejs Pasecniks -0.5
Zhaire Smith -0.1
Landry Shamet 0
Stats-Based Selections 82.8
Myles Turner 11.6
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Brice Johnson 0
Pascal Siakam 17.2
Jayson Tatum 24.6
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
Robert Williams III 7.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 82.8
Myles Turner 11.6
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Brice Johnson 0
Pascal Siakam 17.2
Jayson Tatum 24.6
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
Robert Williams III 7.5
TORONTO RAPTORS 2021-2023
Actual Draft Selections 5.4
Scottie Barnes 6.5
Gradey Dick -1.1
Stats-Based Selections 6.7
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 5.7
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Kobe Bufkin -0.1
CHICAGO BULLS 2016-2023
Actual Draft Selections 14.5
Denzel Valentine 0.2
Lauri Markkanen 9.9
Wendell Carter 4.2
Chandler Hutchison -0.9
Coby White 0.8
Patrick Williams 0.2
Dalen Terry 0.1
Stats-Based Selections 67.5
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Robert Williams III 7.5
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Wendell Moore 0
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 68.2
Denzel Valentine 0.2
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Robert Williams III 7.5
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Wendell Moore 0
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 2018-2022
Actual Draft Selections 10.6
Collin Sexton 1.3
Darius Garland 4.3
Dylan Windler 0.1
Kevin Porter Jr. 0.7
Isaac Okoro -0.4
Evan Mobley 5.9
Ochai Agbaji -1.3
Stats-Based Selections 45.8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Jordan Poole -0.4
Kevin Porter Jr. 0.7
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Wendell Moore 0
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 45.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Jordan Poole -0.4
Kevin Porter Jr. 0.7
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
AJ Griffin 0.1
DETROIT PISTONS (2015-2023/Eternally Tanking)3
Actual Draft Selections 1.6
Stanley Johnson -1.6
Henry Ellenson -0.3
Luke Kennard 4.3
Sekou Doumbouya -1.8
Killian Hayes -2.7
Isaiah Stewart -0.4
Saddiq Bey 2.9
Cade Cunningham 1.6
Jaden Ivey -1.4
Jalen Duren 1.3
Ausar Thompson -0.1
Marcus Sasser -0.2
Stats-Based Selections 54.7
Myles Turner 11.6
Malik Beasley 2.1
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Grant Williams 0.3
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alexej Pokusevski -1.0
Zeke Nnaji -0.6
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Wendell Moore 0
AJ Griffin 0.1
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 60
Myles Turner 11.6
Malik Beasley 2.1
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Grant Williams 0.3
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alexej Pokusevski -1.0
Zeke Nnaji -0.6
Alperen Sengun 5.8
AJ Griffin 0.1
Jalen Duren 1.3
Ausar Thompson -0.1
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
INDIANA PACERS 2021-2023
Actual Draft Selections -1
Chris Duarte -1
Isaiah Jackson 0.8
Benedict Mathurin -1.6
Jarace Walker 0.1
Ben Sheppard -0.2
Stats-Based Selections 6.8
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
Wendell Moore 0
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 5.9
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
AJ Griffin 0.1
Kobe Bufkin -0.1
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 2016-2019
Actual Draft Selections 6.3
Thon Maker -0.1
DJ Wilson -0.3
Donte DiVincenzo 6.7
Stats-Based Selections 21.9
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
Humility Adjusted Stat-Based Selections 21.9
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
DENVER NUGGETS
Actual Draft Selections 16.1
Emmanuel Mudiay -2.2
Jamal Murray 10.7
Juan Hernangomez 0.1
Malik Beasley 2.1
Tyler Lydon -0.1
Michael Porter Jr. 5.5
Stats-Based Selections 35.1
Myles Turner 11.6
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Malik Beasley 2.1
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 35.1
Myles Turner 11.6
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Malik Beasley 2.1
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 2015-2023
Actual Draft Selections 48.7
Karl Anthony-Towns 31.8
Tyus Jones 8.1
Kris Dunn 1.0
Justin Patton -0.1
Josh Okogie -0.2
Jarrett Culver -1.6
Anthony Edwards 7.7
Leandro Bolmaro -0.5
Jaden McDaniels -0.8
Walker Kessler 3.2
Wendell Moore 0
Stats-Based Selections 79
Karl Anthony-Towns 31.8
Tyus Jones 8.1
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Udoka Azubuike 0.1
Jaden McDaniels -0.8
Wendell Moore 0
TyTy Washington -0.6
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 79
Karl Anthony-Towns 31.8
Tyus Jones 8.1
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Okogie -0.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Udoka Azubuike 0.1
Jaden McDaniels -0.8
Wendell Moore 0
TyTy Washington -0.6
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 2021-2023
Actual Draft Selections 10.6
Josh Giddey 4.1
Tre Mann -1.2
Chet Holmgren 3.3
Ousmane Dieng -0.3
Jalen Williams 3.8
Cason Wallace 0.9
Stats-Based Selections 10.7
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
Chet Holmgren 3.3
Wendell Moore 0
AJ Griffin 0.1
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 9.7
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
Chet Holmgren 3.3
Wendell Moore 0
AJ Griffin 0.1
Kobe Bufkin -0.1
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 2022-2023
Actual Draft Selections -3.1
Shaedon Sharpe -0.8
Scoot Henderson -1.7
Kris Murray -0.6
Stats-Based Selections 0.4
Wendell Moore 0
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections -0.5
AJ Griffin 0.1
Ausar Thompson -0.1
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
UTAH JAZZ 2015-2017
Actual Draft Selections 25.6
Trey Lyles 2.5
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Tony Bradley 1.1
Stats-Based Selections 44.8
Devin Booker 16.2
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Josh Hart 6.6
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 44.8
Devin Booker 16.2
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Josh Hart 6.6
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 2020-2021
Actual Draft Selections 0
James Wiseman -1.4
Jonathan Kuminga 1
Moses Moody 0.4
Stats-Based Selections 20.2
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Moses Moody 0.4
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 20.2
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Moses Moody 0.4
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 2018 19
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Jerome Robinson -1.2
Stats-Based Selections 20
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Josh Okogie -0.2
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 20
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Josh Okogie -0.2
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 2015-20194
Actual Draft Selections 49
D’Angelo Russell 11.8
Larry Nance Jr. 9.9
Brandon Ingram 8.4
Lonzo Ball 6.3
Kyle Kuzma 3.4
Josh Hart 6.6
Moritz Wagner 2.6
Stats-Based Selections 84.7
D’Angelo Russell 11.8
RJ Hunter 0
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Jayson Tatum 24.6
Josh Hart 6.6
Derrick White 11.4
Robert Williams III 7.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 84.7
D’Angelo Russell 11.8
RJ Hunter 0
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Jayson Tatum 24.6
Josh Hart 6.6
Derrick White 11.4
Robert Williams III 7.5
PHOENIX SUNS 2015-2020
Actual Draft Selections 37.9
Devin Booker 16.2
Dragan Bender -1.9
Marquese Chriss -0.5
Josh Jackson -3.1
DeAndre Ayton 8.3
Mikal Bridges 11.4
Cameron Johnson 5.9
Ty Jerome 0.3
Jalen Smith 1.3
Stats-Based Selections 114.6
Devin Booker 16.2
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Luka Doncic 34.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Jordan Poole -0.4
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 115.3
Devin Booker 16.2
Domantas Sabonis 22.8
Denzel Valentine 0.2
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Luka Doncic 34.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Jordan Poole -0.4
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
SACRAMENTO KINGS 2015-2022
Actual Draft Selections 24
Willie Cauley-Stein 4.4
Georgios Papagiannis -0.2
Malachi Richardson -0.7
Skal Labissiere -0.2
De’Aaron Fox 9.8
Justin Jackson -1
Harry Giles -0.2
Marvin Bagley 0.2
Tyrese Haliburton 12.6
Davion Mitchell -1.7
Keegan Murray 1
Stats-Based Draft Selections 75.6
Myles Turner 11.6
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Brice Johnson 0
Damian Jones 1.0
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Hart 6.6
Luka Doncic 34.3
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Wendell Moore 0
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 76.4
Myles Turner 11.6
Denzel Valentine 0.2
Brice Johnson 0
Damian Jones 1.0
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Josh Hart 6.6
Luka Doncic 34.3
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
AJ Griffin 0.1
ATLANTA HAWKS 2016-2024
Actual Draft Selections 27.4
Taurean Prince -0.3
DeAndre Bembry -0.4
John Collins 8.3
Trae Young 17.5
Kevin Huerter 3.5
Omari Spellman 0.2
DeAndre Hunter -2.5
Cam Reddish -1.6
Onyeka Okongwu 2.7
Stats-Based Selections 35.1
Wade Baldwin -0.5
Brice Johnson 0
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Trae Young 17.5
Josh Okogie -0.2
Omari Spellman 0.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Grant Williams 0.3
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 37.5
Denzel Valentine 0.2
Brice Johnson 0
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Trae Young 17.5
Josh Okogie -0.2
Omari Spellman 0.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
PJ Washington 1.9
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
CHARLOTTE HORNETS 2017-2023
Actual Draft Selections 14
Malik Monk 2.2
Miles Bridges 4.4
PJ Washington 1.6
LaMelo Ball 7.1
James Bouknight -0.9
Kai Jones -0.4
Mark Williams 0.8
Brandon Miller -0.3
Nick Smith Jr. -0.5
Stats-Based Selections 45.9
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Josh Okogie -0.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
Wendell Moore 0
Brandon Miller -0.3
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 50.6
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Miles Bridges 4.4
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
AJ Griffin 0.1
Brandon Miller -0.3
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
MIAMI HEAT 2015-2019
Actual Draft Selections 20
Justise Winslow -0.3
Bam Adebayo 16.1
Tyler Herro 4.2
Stats-Based Selections 15.4
Myles Turner 11.6
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Tyler Herro 4.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 15.4
Myles Turner 11.6
Caleb Swanigan -0.7
Tyler Herro 4.5
ORLANDO MAGIC 2015-2023
Actual Draft Selections 14.7
Mario Hezonja -1.2
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Mohamed Bamba 3.0
Chuma Okeke 0.9
Cole Anthony 2.2
Franz Wagner 3.9
Paolo Banchero 2.7
Anthony Black -0.3
Jett Howard 0
Stats-Based Selections 44.1
Myles Turner 11.6
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Grant Williams 0.3
Alexej Pokusevski -1.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Chet Holmgren 3.3
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 44.6
Myles Turner 11.6
Jonathan Isaac 3.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20.2
Grant Williams 0.3
Alexej Pokusevski -1.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Chet Holmgren 3.3
Kobe Bufkin -0.1
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
WASHINGTON WIZARDS 2019-2023
Actual Draft Selections -2.4
Rui Hachimura -0.9
Deni Avdija 0.2
Corey Kispert 0
Johnny Davis -0.9
Bilal Coulibaly -0.8
Stats-Based Selections 25.2
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Wendell Moore 0
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 24.3
Tyler Herro 4.5
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
AJ Griffin 0.1
Kobe Bufkin -0.1
DALLAS MAVERICKS 2017-2020
Actual Draft Selections 33.7
Dennis Smith -0.2
Luka Doncic 34.3
Josh Green -0.4
Stats-Based Draft Selections 55.7
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Luka Doncic 34.3
Zeke Nnaji -0.6
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Draft Selections 55.7
Donovan Mitchell 22.0
Luka Doncic 34.3
Zeke Nnaji -0.6
HOUSTON ROCKETS 2021-2023
Actual Draft Selections 7.3
Jalen Green 0.5
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Usman Garuba 0.2
Josh Christopher -1.0
Jabari Smith Jr. 0
Tari Eason 0.6
TyTy Washington -0.6
Amen Thompson 1.3
Cam Whitmore 0.5
Stats-Based Selections 5.9
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
Cameron Thomas -0.2
Jaden Springer -0.1
Jabari Smith Jr. 0
Wendell Moore 0
TyTy Washington -0.6
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 6.2
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Bones Hyland 0.6
Cameron Thomas -0.2
Jaden Springer -0.1
Jabari Smith Jr. 0
Jalen Duren 1.3
TyTy Washington -0.6
Ausar Thompson -0.1
Brice Sensabaugh -0.5
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 2018-20215
Actual Draft Selections 30
Jaren Jackson Jr. 6.3
Ja Morant 10.1
Brandon Clarke 6.2
Desmond Bane 7.5
Ziaire Williams -1.5
Santi Aldama 1.4
Stats-Based Draft Selections 31.4
Jaren Jackson Jr. 6.3
Ja Morant 10.1
Grant Williams 0.3
Desmond Bane 7.5
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Santi Aldama 1.4
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Draft Selections 31.4
Jaren Jackson Jr. 6.3
Ja Morant 10.1
Grant Williams 0.3
Desmond Bane 7.5
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Santi Aldama 1.4
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 2019
Actual Draft Selections 17
Zion Williamson 9.8
Jaxson Hayes 2.0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 0.8
Kira Lewis Jr. -0.6
Trey Murphy III 4.4
Dyson Daniels 0.9
Jordan Hawkins -0.3
Stats-Based Selections 15.4
Ja Morant 10.1
Tyler Herro 4.5
Grant Williams 0.3
Alexej Pokusevski -1.0
Bones Hyland 0.6
Wendell Moore 0
Brandin Podziemski 0.9
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 15.3
Ja Morant 10.1
Tyler Herro 4.5
Grant Williams 0.3
Aaron Nesmith -0.2
Bones Hyland 0.6
AJ Griffin 0.1
Kobe Bufkin -0.1
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 2020-2023
Actual Selections -0.3
Devin Vassell 2.7
Joshua Primo -0.9
Jeremy Sochan -1.5
Malaki Branham -2.7
Blake Wesley -1.7
Victor Wembanyama 3.8
Stats-Based Selections 20.3
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
Wendell Moore 0
Malaki Branham -2.7
TyTy Washington -0.6
Victor Wembanyama 3.8
Humility Adjusted Stats-Based Selections 20.4
Tyrese Haliburton 14.0
Alperen Sengun 5.8
AJ Griffin 0.1
Malaki Branham -2.7
TyTy Washington -0.6
Victor Wembanyama 3.8
17.16 40.77 41.13
Conclusion
The final count: The stats-based selections outperformed NBA GMs 26/30 times. Thus, while using a stats-based methodology to the draft does not guarantee you the best outcome possible, which should come as no shock, it does put one comfortably among the best drafting GMs in the league. In fact, when I averaged the total VORP of every rebuild compared to my blind drafts, I found that I had outperformed NBA GMs by an average of 23.61 VORP in my strictly stats-based selections. To put that into context, that’s essentially like adding 1987-1988 Michael Jordan, the single greatest individual season of all time according to VORP, to your roster for two seasons.
The four instances in which I lost in this blind draft experiment were to the Nets, the Heat, the Rockets, and the Pelicans. I don’t want to get defensive, but, well, I actually do. In the case of the Nets, they drafted Jarrett Allen, which, there is a reason he was the last pick in the first round of his draft. His statistical production was horrendous. Jarrett Allen may be the biggest outlier I have seen in terms of turning into a terribly inefficient college player into a high-impact pro. So, I won’t get too down on myself for missing that, especially given the fact that the Nets rebuild was not really a rebuild and they mostly had to draft out of garbage during that short period. Next, the Heat were similar to the Nets case, but to a lesser extent. The Heat beat me out because they drafted Bam Adebayo, who, while he didn’t have a bad draft profile, didn’t really jump off the page either, especially given what he was about to become in the NBA. The Heat’s rebuild did not last very long, so I didn’t have much time to make up lost ground on the Adebayo selection. As a result, I lost. In the case of the Pelicans, they barely squeaked out a win against me, though I do believe my results will pan out better given a few years time, as I drafted guys who will likely expand upon their current value significantly over the course of their careers, including Tyler Herro and Brandin Podziemski. Finally, if any team in this draft just simply drafted smarter than me, it was the Rockets. The Rockets didn’t beat me by much, but they won on the margins, drafting better in the later end of the draft, though we drafted awfully similar early on. Having looked into all of this, I feel pretty confident that the stats-based approach dominates over almost any other approach, though it may miss here and there. The point of the stats-based approach is not to be perfect, but to maximize one’s odds of succeeding in selecting draft prospects. In this regard, I think the blind, stats-based approach excels.
Now, to address the humility adjustment: It doesn’t make a huge difference. Out of all 30 rebuilds, the humility adjustment was the sole victor in only six scenarios. Otherwise, it tied with the strictly stats-based selections 14 times. In fact, the stats-based selections triumphed over the humility adjustment selections six time, which, if you can do basic math, means that the humility adjustment only proved better than the stats-based method by two more rebuilds. Another way to look at it is that the humility adjustment only added 0.36 VORP to a rebuild on average, compared to the stats-based selections. That is effectively like adding 2023-2024 Jock Landale to your team—for one season. In other words, you could probably get by just fine off of the strictly stats-based method. So, when people say, “You would be stupid to only look at stats when evaluating a prospect”, sure, there may be some truth to the idea that context beyond the stats can improve your draft outcomes. However, as demonstrated above, a blind, strictly stats-based approach will have you outperforming most GMs in the NBA by a significant margin. You wouldn’t call an approach that yields those results stupid. Perhaps, if I made the humility adjustment more extensive, then we would see more improved outcomes from the humility adjustment over the stats-based method. However, there just does not seem to be a strong indication that that would actually be the case, though I may look into that further some other time.
In conclusion, there is a reason we use statistics to evaluate basketball. Stats-based analysis will not produce perfect outcomes, but it improves odds of making the right pick. At the end of the day, the draft is a bit of a crap shoot. You’ll get guys who look like studs, like Alexej Pokusevski, who end up being duds. But you’ll also get guys who look terrible, like Jaylen Brown, who end up being Eastern Conference Finals MVPs. All drafts, in a sense, are blind drafts, so getting the odds in your favor is key, and the best way to get the odds in your favor is by following the numbers.
While I could have done this for every draft pick that every team has made since 2015, I decided to focus on rebuild periods (first season out of playoffs until first season in playoffs) to save time, as this is only a side hobby and I’m not going to spend an extra day writing this article just for fun. If you want to do that for me, by all means, go ahead.
COVID really hurt with the 2020 draft. Everyone was effectively on a smaller sample size, so there were a lot of chances to slip up big time—and it shows. Perhaps the 2020 draft is the best argument in favor of not using exclusively stats to analyze players, as small sample sizes can be wildly deceptive. That said, I still like the outcomes of pretty much every other class. In conclusion, scouts generally know what they are doing, but I think stats know better when you are operating off a better sample size.
This experiment demonstrates to me the root of Detroit’s rebuilding woes. They are truly bad drafters. After nine years of drafts and 12 selections, Detroit has gotten 1.6 VORPS. That’s just atrocious. If Detroit wants to reverse its bad fortune, it has to find better scouts.
I get that the Lakers fairly won a chip in the bubble, but the fact that their scouting team has been killing it and they only have one chip to prove from it is pretty disappointing. They have also heavily benefited from superb draft positioning. I think this team could have been a championship team, even without LeBron if they had a slightly more competent front office outside of their scouting team.
Memphis is a super analytically based team. They have hit on just about every player. The only reason I outperformed them is because I picked a significantly better player in Sengun over their out-of-character selection of Ziaire Williams.