I, admittedly, fall into the trap of looking exclusively at regular season statistics. It’s tempting to do so, as they are more reliable metrics of a player’s overall ability over the long-term given a greater sample size and the fact that every player plays regular season games a year. However, the NBA is not the Premier League. Teams do not claim the title by winning the most games or points in the regular season. Instead, the NBA crowns champions through a tournament. One could argue that the true mark of the best NBA teams is who remains supreme at the end of the regular season, because this prevents flukes, slumps, and hot streaks from determining the final outcome. That said, the NBA is an entertainment service, and, as such, the value of an NBA team comes from how fans perceive its talent. At the end of the day, fans see a team as talented if it can win in the playoffs. As such, practically speaking, the most important thing in evaluating the best NBA teams are playoff outcomes.
Now, one could argue that, in all reality, the playoffs are not a good representation of how good teams are. However, the NBA playoffs, in my opinion, are actually one of the better representative samples of true talent among US sporting leagues. At the end of the day, regular season outcomes correlate strongly with playoff results, so the playoffs are a fun and exciting way to crown a champion, while still being fairly representative of an NBA teams’ abilities over a longer course of time. Afterall, the NBA playoffs is a grueling tournament, with a team wishing to win a championship having to play anywhere from 16 to 28 games. That’s a better sample size than the whole NFL season. As well, the playoffs create a high-stakes environment where players bring out their best. As such, one could argue that the NBA playoffs are a better representation of how good a team could be at its peak abilities. So, yes, the playoffs matter, and as such, should certainly be accounted for when evaluating NBA draft talent.
With these thoughts in mind, I decided to look into what Prospect Score, my new metric for evaluating NBA draft prospects, says about playoff performance. I wish to discuss my findings by covering each position’s outcomes when Prospect Score is asked to project player performance in the playoffs in terms of VORP. If you would like to get a greater understanding of how Prospect Score works, check out my article “Introducing Prospect Score”. Here is what I discovered:
Centers
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Centers are not super valuable in the playoffs. Among the five positions, centers have the second lowest average VORP come playoff time, only beating out power forwards. Additionally, projecting how well a center will perform in the playoffs based on statistics prior to entering the NBA is quite challenging. Among the 12 statistics that Prospect Score considers, only true shooting percentage and rebounding have correlation with increased VORP come playoff time among centers. Even then, these stats don’t bear particularly strong correlation with playoff VORP. That said, the top performers in Playoff Prospect Score are as follows:
Udoka Azubuike
Chet Holmgren
Domantas Sabonis
Zach Collins
DayRon Sharpe
Robert Williams
DeAndre Ayton
Mark Williams
Tony Bradley
Mohamed Bamba
This isn’t a terrible list, but it’s not a great list either. There is some star-power, with Sabonis and Chet Holmgren. However, there are also a few players that, while not considered all-star caliber players, have boasted impressive playoff performances in Robert Williams and DeAndre Ayton. That said, you get a lot of questionable names too, like Udoka Azubuike and Tony Bradley. That said, it could be that these players just haven’t had enough playoff reps to prove themselves yet??? Yeah, probably just poor projections on Prospect Score’s part.
On the other end, here are the worst performers in Playoff Prospect Score for centers:
Skal Labissiere
Kristaps Porzingis
Kai Jones
Willie Cauley-Stein
Jarrett Allen
Damian Jones
Frank Kaminsky
Georgios Papagiannis
Jaxson Hayes
Moritz Wagner
I’d say this is a pretty inoffensive list. Porzingis at second worst seems off, but Porzingis only has a career playoff VORP of 0.6, so it’s not like he’s some playoff god. Jarrett Allen also raises an eyebrow, but he’s a draft outlier in every respect, so it did not shock me to see him here.
Having looked into the results for the 2015-2022 classes, I will not provide a list of the top center prospects from the 2024 class:
Zach Edey
Donovan Clingan
Kel’el Ware
Yves Missi
Alexandre Sarr
Zach Edey actually finishes number two in the past nine years in Playoff Prospect Score for Centers, so there’s a chance he could really pan out come playoff time. That said, the list is topped by Udoka Azubuike, so not too much stock should be taken into that. Another interesting note is how low Alexandre Sarr finished. He’s rated as the fourth lowest Playoff Prospect Score of the past nine years, though he’s in company with Jarrett Allen and Kristaps Porzingis, so I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over that.
Overall, I wouldn’t take a ton of stock into Playoff Prospect Score for centers. Only two stats really give any indication of how well a center will perform in the playoffs, and it’s not like they give a strong indication any ways. If you need a center in the draft, I wouldn’t sweat too much over how they’ll perform come playoff time, but it may be worth giving a quick glance.
Power Forwards
![DaRon Holmes, Power Forward, Montverde Academy | Irish Sports Daily DaRon Holmes, Power Forward, Montverde Academy | Irish Sports Daily](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F775fbb0e-3a3b-437d-97be-bd20629c1592_480x480.jpeg)
I honestly would not look into Prospect Score to evaluate power forwards in the playoffs. Only one statistic indicated improved playoff VORP and that stat was age. In fact, in opposition to one of the most consistent trends in evaluating draft talent, older prospects perform better in the playoffs over the course of their careers. That said, this could just be a correlation resulting from a small sample size. According to Prospect Score, the best power forwards in the playoffs would be:
Brandon Clarke
Larry Nance Jr.
Pascal Siakam
Obi Toppin
Brice Johnson
Kyle Kuzma
Keegan Murray
Rui Hachimura
DJ Wilson
Jarell Martin
Not the sexiest group ever. I will give props to Prospect Score for picking out Pascal Siakam, who is one of the best playoff performers in the NBA. That said, this is a pretty underwhelming list.
The poorest performers were as follows:
Aleksej Pokusevski
Chuma Okeke
Dragan Bender
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Patrick Williams
Kevin Knox
Nikola Jovic
Zion Williamson
Marquese Chriss
Jeremy Sochan
This is a strange list, because you get some true busts, like Pokusevski, Bender, Knox, and Chriss, but you also get some good players, like Zion Williamson and Jaren Jackson Jr. It could be the case that these players are not built for the playoffs, but for the regular season, but I’m not sure if I really see that in them. Zion really killed it in the playoffs last year, despite his team getting swept.
While I am skeptical of how well Playoff Prospect Score projects power forwards in the playoffs, the power forward prospects of this class that went in the first round finished as follows:
DaRon Holmes
Matas Buzelis
Alexandre Sarr
For a few prospects, I have slotted them in multiple positions, including Sarr at center and power Forward and Buzelis at power forward and small forward. Sarr performs slightly better as a power forward in this metric, but still not great. On the other end, DaRon Holmes finished seventh in Playoff Prospect Score among power forwards in the past nine years. Should we care about this? Probably not. I don’t think Prospect Score is good at predicting power forward performance in the playoffs. As a result, I’m not really touching it in my evaluation of power forwards.
Small Forwards
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Small forwards are pretty similar to centers in terms of how good Prospect Score evaluates their playoff performances. The two strongest predicting stats, in fact, the only predicting stats, are free throw percentage (my personal favorite) and points per 36. According to Playoff Prospect Score, here is the top ten prospects:
Jayson Tatum
Miles Bridges
Aaron Nesmith
Trey Murphy III
Moses Moody
Lauri Markkanen
Corey Kispert
Josh Okogie
Johnny Davis
Nassir Little
Once again, not a terrible list, especially near the top, but not great either. Tatum was a big win here, at number one. However, seeing Johnny Davis and Nassir Little on this list makes me shrivel up inside.
On the other end, the rankings are as follows:
Dyson Daniels
Furkan Korkmaz
OG Anunoby
Josh Jackson
Deni Avdija
DeAndre Bembry
Peyton Watson
Justise Winslow
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Sam Dekker
I won’t complain about this list too much. OG Anunoby is the biggest miss, having a career playoff VORP of 0.8, but he’s not a terrible miss. It’s not like he’s taking over the playoffs by any means. That said, the rest of the list checks out, though many of these players have not really been playoff tested. I’d be particularly interested to see how Deni Avdija fairs in the playoffs.
Among the small forwards of this class, this is how they fare:
Ron Holland
Dillon Jones
Tidjane Salaun
Pacome Dadiet
Baylor Scheierman
Dalton Knecht
Zaccharie Risacher
Tristan da Silva
Cody Williams
Kyshawn George
Matas Buzelis
Ryan Dunn
The top of this list being Ron Holland and Dillon Jones is interesting as Regular Season Prospect Score did not really like either of them. That said, the playoffs are well-suited for them. Ron Holland can score at will, which is important come playoff time. That said, I would be worried about his consistency. Dillon Jones is also interesting, as he can impact that game in so many ways. I certainly think he could be a valuable playoff contributor and think he’s better than his Regular Season Prospect Score gives off. Meanwhile, all of my favorite prospects to trash on fall towards the bottom, so I am getting a good dose of confirmation bias right here.
Despite all that, I think using Playoff Prospect Score to project small forwards is only okay. I still think regular Prospect Score is better.
Shooting Guards
![NBA: Draft, knicks, Pacome Dadiet NBA: Draft, knicks, Pacome Dadiet](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c4d270f-5ba9-48ca-9ec0-3e0042d7eb52_858x483.jpeg)
Shooting guards are the most valuable players come playoff time, averaging a 1.01 career playoff VORP. As such, if you are looking to make a run in the playoffs, scoring a great shooting guard may be the key. Playoff Prospect Score found some correlation with free throw percentage, points per 36, steals per 36, assist to turnover ratio, and younger draft age with playoff performance. None of the correlations were particularly strong, but they are worth noting, nonetheless. Given more statistical indicators, Playoff Prospect Score for shooting guards is, while not amazing, fine.
The top 10 shooting guards according to Playoff Prospect Score are:
Cameron Payne
Jaden Springer
Jalen Suggs
Coby White
Anthony Edwards
Tyler Herro
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Collin Sexton
Lonnie Walker
If you subtract the top two guys, this is actually a pretty good list. I commend playoff prospect score for picking out Anthony Edwards and Collin Sexton, as neither were great prospects according to Prospect Score. That said, Edwards was a beast, at least earlier in the playoffs, this year. As well, Sexton definitely seems like the type of player to go off in the playoffs, given his high efficiency on the offensive end. You also get some noted playoff ballers, in Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker.
The worst performers are:
Buddy Hield
Jerome Robinson
James Bouknight
Malachi Richardson
Grayson Allen
Immanuel Quickley
Donte DiVincenzo
Payton Pritchard
Quentin Grimes
Luke Kennard
I don’t love this list, and certainly think Playoff Prospect Score misses on some decent playoff performers, particularly, Luke Kennard, Donte DiVincenzo, and Payton Pritchard. Thus, while Playoff Prospect Score for shooting guards does solid on the upper end, it struggles on the lower end.
Let’s see how it evaluates the 2024 class’s shooting guards:
Reed Sheppard
Rob Dillingham
Pacome Dadiet
Jared McCain
Ja’Kobe Walter
Kyshawn George
AJ Johnson
Jaylon Tyson
Terrence Shannon
Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham are number one and two in terms of shooting guard Playoff Prospect Score of the past nine years. This is a big deal, as it puts them into good company: Jalen Suggs, Coby White, Anthony Edward, Tyler Herro, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, and Collin Sexton all finish near the top as well. While you get outliers like Cameron Payne and Jaden Springer, generally speaking, players who finish near the top of Playoff Prospect Score for shooting guards do very well in the NBA.
Terrence Shannon, Jaylon Tyson, and AJ Johnson fall in the bottom ten. I’d like to reaffirm a point: Many solid players still arise out of the bottom of Playoff Prospect Score for shooting guards, so all hope is not lost, that said, it is worth being cautious with these prospects.
Point Guards
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If Playoff Prospect Score is good at anything, it is predicting point guard performance come playoff time. Playoff Prospect Score finds that true shooting percentage, free throw percentage, points per 36, three-point percentage, and younger draft age correlate with playoff success. It is also worth noting that these correlations are stronger than in other positions, generally speaking. According to Playoff Prospect Score, the best point guard prospects for the playoffs were:
Trae Young
Ja Morant
Jamal Murray
Cade Cunningham
Landry Shamet
D’Angelo Russell
Lonzo Ball
Markelle Fultz
Tyrese Haliburton
Luka Doncic
This is a really solid top-ten. Trae Young has certainly shown he can perform in the playoffs, as well as Ja Morant and Luka Doncic. The most interesting find is how high Playoff Prospect Score is on Jamal Murray, a player it didn’t love on Regular Season Prospect Score. Perhaps Jamal Murray really is built for the playoffs! Overall, this is a good list, but one has to see how it does at evaluating lower-scoring prospects:
TyTy Washington
Dejounte Murray
Kris Dunn
Terry Rozier
Jerian Grant
Josh Giddey
Ty Jerome
Davion Mitchell
LaMelo Ball
Delon Wright
The verdict is still out on if LaMelo can perform in the playoffs, as he has yet to have made one. Dejounte Murray is a similar case, though he does have some underwhelming experience under his belt. It is worth noting that Terry Rozier has actually been quite underrated in the playoffs, having a career playoff VORP of 1.4, which is actually quite impressive. Looking at this list, I would say Prospect Score can miss on lower-end scoring point guards who end up being okay.
That said, overall, I actually like Playoff Prospect Score for evaluating point guard ability in the playoffs. I still like Prospect Score a bit better, but this is a solid secondary metric. So, let’s see what it says about the 2024 class’s point guards:
Reed Sheppard
Rob Dillingham
Nikola Topic
Isaiah Collier
Bubba Carrington
Devin Carter
Stephon Castle
Once again, Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham dominate. However, Topic does well too. Point Guard Reed Sheppard finishes as the top Playoff Prospect Score point guard of the past nine years, but also finishes as the top Playoff Prospect Score player of the past nine years period.1 Meanwhile, Rob Dillingham is close behind him, finishing third as a point guard and overall, with only Trae Young in between him and his former teammate at Kentucky. Topic finishes fifth among point guards and overall, which bodes well for him too, trailing only the above-mentioned names, Ja Morant, and Jamal Murray. All of these players did quite well in Regular Season Prospect Score too, which says a lot about what these guards are capable of (though Rob Dillingham struggled somewhat as a point guard). The 2024 class is an underrated class in terms of guard talent. In fact, I bet we are seeing one of the better guard classes that we have seen in years.
Conclusion
Playoff Prospect Score seems to point out to certain gems in this class in terms of playoff production, specifically, Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Nikola Topic, and Zach Edey. That said, it is hard to get too excited.
Playoff Prospect Score is an okay metric for some positions, but it isn’t amazing. There are a few reasons for this, but the main one is that the sample size is too small.
Not everyone gets to play in the playoffs, and despite what some people might believe, basketball is a team sport, and an individual can’t shoulder a team’s lack of success on his own. As well, even the most prolific playoff participants don’t have a huge sample size. LeBron James has played in 287 playoff games, which is solid, but that’s only equivalent to four seasons of regular season stats, so evaluating his playoff performance would be on par with evaluating a player in his fourth year, like Anthony Edwards. That’s not terrible, but that’s LeBron james, who beats the next active player in playoff appearances, Al Horford by 101 games played. Al Horford also has a very prolific NBA career in terms of playoff performances. Most players have played less than a regular season’s worth of NBA playoff games, as such drawing from playoff stats is a lot like drawing off a of a player’s rookie numbers to make a conclusion on them. As such, the sample size is not fantastic.
So, obviously the playoffs are important. I’d love to be able to evaluate how NBA prospects project into the NBA playoffs, but it’s not that easy to do. It’s not even easy to project how a long-time pro will perform come playoff time. As such, considering a player’s potential come playoff time is important, but don’t get too frustrated if you keep missing on who the top playoff performers will be.
For those who are interested, here is the top 10 overall prospects according to Playoff Prospect Score of the past nine years, excluding the 2024 and 2023 classes:
Trae Young
Ja Morant
Jamal Murray
Cade Cunningham
Landry Shamet
D’Angelo Russell
Lonzo Ball
Markelle Fultz
Tyrese Haliburton
Luka Doncic
Note how they are all point guards. This checks out in my mind, given how guard dominated the playoffs are.